South32

Public consensus   -   Last updated 13/08/26

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100 St Georges Terrace
Perth
6000
Australia

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Contributors 11

  • Barclays
  • Barrenjoey
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBC Capital Markets
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Absolute
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY26
CONSENSUS
13/08/26
FY26
MIN
FY26
MAX
Income Statement
Other financial information 2
Underlying EBIT.
11
1,694
1,273
1,835
Underlying depreciation and amortisation
11
720
686
773
Underlying EBITDA
11
2,418
2,046
2,543
Underlying Earnings
11
1,021
851
1,079
Underlying net finance cost
9
(183)
(232)
(81)
Underlying income tax expense
10
(476)
(536)
(301)
Underlying basic earnings per share (US cents)
11
22.7
18.9
24.1
Dividends declared per share (US cents)
11
9.3
7.3
10.9
Cash Flow Statement
Net cash/(debt)
11
264
58
444
Segment Information (South32 share)
Worsley Alumina (86% share)
Alumina production (kt)
11
3,724
3,722
3,741
Alumina sales (kt)
11
3,630
3,630
3,630
Realised alumina sales price (US$/t)
11
363
363
366
Revenue
11
1,319
1,318
1,329
Underlying EBITDA
11
176
139
195
Brazil Aluminium (Alumina 36% share, Aluminium 40% share)
Alumina production (kt)
11
1,411
1,411
1,411
Aluminium production (kt)
11
144.0
144.0
144.0
Alumina sales (kt)
11
1,409
1,409
1,409
Aluminium sales (kt)
11
143.0
143.0
143.0
Realised alumina sales price (US$/t)
11
350
292
357
Realised aluminium sales price (US$/t)
11
3,083
3,063
3,096
Brazil Alumina Revenue
11
494
411
503
Brazil Aluminium Revenue
11
441
438
443
Brazil Alumina Underlying EBITDA
11
35
4
53
Brazil Aluminium Underlying EBITDA
11
20
(10)
36
Hillside Aluminium (100%)
Aluminium production (kt)
11
717
717
717
Aluminium sales (kt)
11
687
672
688
Realised aluminium sales price (US$/t)
11
3,199
2,687
3,264
Revenue
11
2,196
1,848
2,239
Underlying EBITDA
11
628
492
659
Mozal Aluminium (47.1% to 31 May 22, 63.7% from 1 June 22)
Aluminium production (kt)
11
248
248
248
Aluminium sales (kt)
11
271
229
275
Realised aluminium sales price (US$/t)
11
3,224
3,054
3,279
Revenue
11
874
699
902
Underlying EBITDA
11
195
120
294
Australia Manganese (60% share)
Manganese ore production (kwmt)
11
3,029
3,011
3,031
Manganese ore sales (kwmt)
11
3,598
3,598
3,598
Realised External manganese ore sales price (US$/dmtu, FOB)
11
4.23
4.10
4.30
Revenue
11
661
615
689
Underlying EBITDA
11
219
180
255
South Africa Manganese (54.6% ore, 60% alloy share)
Manganese ore production (kwmt)
11
2,085
2,085
2,085
Manganese ore sales (kwmt)
11
2,181
2,181
2,181
Realised External manganese ore sales price (US$/dmtu, FOB)
11
3.63
3.53
3.69
Revenue
11
346
287
364
Underlying EBITDA
11
26
(4)
38
Cerro Matoso (99.9% share)
Payable nickel production (kt)
11
16.6
15.0
32.4
Payable nickel sales (kt)
11
16.9
15.3
32.7
Realised nickel price (US$/t)
11
12,871
12,610
13,814
Revenue
11
218
193
451
Underlying EBITDA
11
20
11
93
Cannington (100%)
Ore processed (kdmt)
11
2,163
2,163
2,163
Payable Silver production (koz)
11
8,906
8,906
8,906
Payable Lead production (kt)
11
82.9
82.9
82.9
Payable Zinc production (kt)
11
39.2
39.2
39.2
Payable Silver sales (koz)
11
8,693
8,693
8,693
Payable Lead sales (kt)
11
82.8
82.8
82.8
Payable Zinc sales (kt)
11
38.0
38.0
38.0
Realised Silver sales price (US$/oz)
10
66.85
61.30
75.20
Realised Lead sales price (US$/t)
11
1,950
1,900
1,994
Realised Zinc sales price (US$/t)
11
2,985
2,680
3,154
Revenue
11
853
815
938
Underlying EBITDA
11
442
411
455
Additional Disclosures - Capital
Total capital expenditure (incl. EAI)
10
1,365
1,327
1,388
Additional Disclosures - Other
Number of shares on issue at period end (million)
10
4,489
4,471
4,504
Other financial information
Underlying revenue
11
8,096
7,830
8,243
Sierra Gorda (45%)
Ore processed (kdmt)
11
20,873
19,600
21,000
Payable Copper production (kt)
11
69.2
69.2
69.2
Payable Molybdenum production (kt)
10
1.9
1.9
2.1
Payable Gold production (koz)
10
18.5
18.3
18.5
Payable Silver production (koz)
10
740
737
741
Payable Copper sales (kt)
11
69.1
69.1
69.2
Payable Molybdenum sales (kt)
11
2.1
1.9
2.1
Payable Gold sales (koz)
10
18.6
18.3
18.6
Payable Silver sales (koz)
11
734
695
741
Realised Copper sales price (US$/lb)
11
5.83
5.29
6.11
Realised Molbdenum sales price (US$/lb)
10
25.8
21.7
26.9
Realised Gold sales price (US$/oz)
10
4,438
4,248
4,627
Realised Silver sales price (US$/oz)
10
67.8
62.8
72.3
Revenue
11
1,137
1,005
1,195
Underlying EBITDA
11
759
716
781

Disclaimer

South32 has invited registered sell-side analysts who monitor South32’s securities to submit their estimates in respect of the
year ended 30 June 2026 to an external web-based platform hosted by Vuma Financial Limited (Vuma) (an independent service provider).
South32 does not consider the information in the table to be materially price sensitive. It is provided as a courtesy to all interested
persons who would not otherwise have access to it.

The consensus figure for a particular item is the arithmetic mean of all estimates submitted for that item by participating sell-side
analysts and collated by Vuma. Analyst estimates entered into Vuma that are materially out of date, or that contain a manifest error
have been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures. The following estimates were excluded given they included a manifest error:

• One set of estimates for Underlying net finance cost: has been reported on a statutory basis which incorrectly excludes net finance
costs from our manganese and Sierra Gorda EAIs
• One set of estimates for Sierra Gorda payable gold sales: this estimate is nil, which materially differs from reported actuals

The consensus figures reflect the opinions of the participating sell-side analysts and are not directly or indirectly attributable to
South32. South32 has not commented on or verified the information provided by the contributors (other than to correct factual
inaccuracies or to direct the analyst(s) to information previously disclosed to the Australian Securities Exchange). Neither Vuma nor
third party sell-side analysts have access to South32’s internal financial information. Publication of the consensus figures should
not be treated as an express or implied endorsement of the information by South32. South32 expressly disclaims any endorsement of or
concurrence with the information and makes no comment about its own forecast performance.

South32’s actual performance for the period is not yet known and may differ from the consensus figures. A significant number of
variable factors impact the Group’s financial results, including accounting determinations and external factors (such as fluctuations
in exchange rates and commodity prices) immediately prior to the end of the financial year.

The South32 Group, its Directors and employees do not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information,
assume no liability whatsoever in relation to the information and undertake no obligation to update or revise it. The information does
not constitute or contain investment advice or any recommendation in relation to South32 financial products.