South32

Public consensus   -   Last updated 14/08/25

Contributors 13

  • Barclays
  • Barrenjoey
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Absolute
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY25
CONSENSUS
14/08/25
FY25
MIN
FY25
MAX
Income Statement
Other financial information 2
Underlying EBIT.
13
1,241
1,178
1,498
Underlying depreciation and amortisation
13
720
707
758
Underlying EBITDA
13
1,962
1,898
2,217
Underlying Earnings
13
703
621
1,020
Underlying net finance cost
11
(191)
(251)
(141)
Underlying income tax expense
13
(369)
(435)
(344)
Underlying basic earnings per share (US cents)
13
15.6
13.8
22.6
Dividends declared per share (US cents)
13
6.6
5.7
9.1
Cash Flow Statement
Net cash/(debt)
13
149
(115)
400
Segment Information (South32 share)
Worsley Alumina (86% share)
Alumina production (kt)
13
3,727
3,727
3,727
Alumina sales (kt)
13
3,699
3,699
3,699
Realised alumina sales price (US$/t)
13
518
518
519
Revenue
13
1,917
1,915
1,919
Underlying EBITDA
13
789
770
807
Brazil Aluminium (Alumina 36% share, Aluminium 40% share)
Alumina production (kt)
13
1,340
1,340
1,340
Aluminium production (kt)
13
138.0
138.0
138.0
Alumina sales (kt)
13
1,349
1,349
1,349
Aluminium sales (kt)
13
138.0
138.0
138.0
Realised alumina sales price (US$/t)
13
555
554
555
Realised aluminium sales price (US$/t)
13
2,560
2,435
2,573
Brazil Alumina Revenue
13
749
747
749
Brazil Aluminium Revenue
13
353
336
355
Brazil Alumina Underlying EBITDA
13
300
273
316
Brazil Aluminium Underlying EBITDA
13
(92)
(105)
(85)
Hillside Aluminium (100%)
Aluminium production (kt)
13
718
718
720
Aluminium sales (kt)
13
731
718
732
Realised aluminium sales price (US$/t)
13
2,687
2,329
2,718
Revenue
13
1,964
1,705
1,989
Underlying EBITDA
13
171
145
216
Mozal Aluminium (47.1% to 31 May 22, 63.7% from 1 June 22)
Aluminium production (kt)
13
355
355
355
Aluminium sales (kt)
13
351
351
351
Realised aluminium sales price (US$/t)
13
2,789
2,789
2,790
Revenue
13
979
979
979
Underlying EBITDA
13
131
127
146
Australia Manganese (60% share)
Manganese ore production (kwmt)
13
1,081
253
1,639
Manganese ore sales (kwmt)
13
253
253
257
Realised External manganese ore sales price (US$/dmtu, FOB)
12
3.65
1.84
4.63
Revenue
13
35
(101)
64
Underlying EBITDA
13
(108)
(120)
(83)
South Africa Manganese (54.6% ore, 60% alloy share)
Manganese ore production (kwmt)
13
2,147
2,096
2,151
Manganese ore sales (kwmt)
13
2,112
2,096
2,303
Realised External manganese ore sales price (US$/dmtu, FOB)
13
3.74
3.63
4.01
Revenue
13
357
333
390
Underlying EBITDA
13
53
34
75
Cerro Matoso (99.9% share)
Payable nickel production (kt)
12
37.1
37.1
37.1
Payable nickel sales (kt)
12
36.7
36.7
36.7
Realised nickel price (US$/t)
12
13,193
13,026
13,350
Revenue
12
484
478
490
Underlying EBITDA
12
70
61
76
Cannington (100%)
Ore processed (kdmt)
12
1,948
1,944
1,996
Payable Silver production (koz)
13
10,285
10,202
10,292
Payable Lead production (kt)
13
92.4
92.4
92.4
Payable Zinc production (kt)
13
44.5
44.5
44.5
Payable Silver sales (koz)
13
11,019
11,019
11,020
Payable Lead sales (kt)
13
99.3
99.3
99.3
Payable Zinc sales (kt)
13
45.7
45.7
45.7
Realised Silver sales price (US$/oz)
13
31.66
29.62
32.37
Realised Lead sales price (US$/t)
13
1,881
1,784
2,057
Realised Zinc sales price (US$/t)
12
2,661
2,549
2,908
Revenue
13
654
635
660
Underlying EBITDA
13
271
243
305
Additional Disclosures - Capital
Total capital expenditure (incl. EAI)
11
1,293
1,131
1,419
Additional Disclosures - Other
Number of shares on issue at period end (million)
13
4,505
4,497
4,529
Other financial information
Underlying revenue
13
7,701
6,372
8,073
Sierra Gorda (45%)
Ore processed (kdmt)
12
21,703
21,700
21,735
Payable Copper production (kt)
13
71.4
71.4
71.4
Payable Molybdenum production (kt)
13
1.5
1.5
1.5
Payable Gold production (koz)
13
27.9
27.9
27.9
Payable Silver production (koz)
12
587
584
599
Payable Copper sales (kt)
13
72.8
71.4
72.9
Payable Molybdenum sales (kt)
13
1.3
0.7
1.5
Payable Gold sales (koz)
12
28.5
27.9
28.5
Payable Silver sales (koz)
12
599
599
599
Realised Copper sales price (US$/lb)
13
4.17
4.09
4.22
Realised Molbdenum sales price (US$/lb)
13
20.9
18.4
21.4
Realised Gold sales price (US$/oz)
13
2,772
1,889
2,923
Realised Silver sales price (US$/oz)
12
30.8
22.6
31.7
Revenue
13
818
799
844
Underlying EBITDA
13
473
440
497

Disclaimer

South32 has invited registered sell-side analysts who monitor South32’s securities to submit their estimates in respect of year ended 30 June 2025 to an external web-based platform hosted by Vuma Financial Limited (Vuma) (an independent service provider). South32 does not consider the information in the table to be materially price sensitive. It is provided as a courtesy to all interested persons who would not otherwise have access to it.

The consensus figure for a particular item is the arithmetic mean of all estimates submitted for that item by participating sell-side analysts and collated by Vuma. Analyst estimates entered into Vuma that are materially out of date, or that contain a manifest error have been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures. The following estimates were excluded given they included a manifest error:

• Two sets of estimates for Underlying net finance cost: has been reported on a statutory basis which incorrectly excludes net finance costs from our manganese and Sierra Gorda EAIs
• Two set of estimates for total capital expenditure including equity accounted investments: has been reported as n/a
• One set of estimates for Cerro Matoso: has been reported as n/a
• One set of estimates for Sierra Gorda ore processed, payable silver production, silver realised price and payable silver sales: has been reported as n/a
• One set of estimates for Sierra Gorda payable gold sales: this estimate is nil, which materially differs from reported actuals
• One set of estimates for Cannington ore processed: has been reported as n/a
• One set of estimates for Australia Manganese realised price: has been reported as n/a
• One set of estimates for Cannington zinc realised price: this estimate differs materially from reported actuals
• One set of estimates for Brazil Aluminium unit cost: has been reported as n/a

The consensus figures reflect the opinions of the participating sell-side analysts and are not directly or indirectly attributable to South32. South32 has not commented on or verified the information provided by the contributors (other than to correct factual inaccuracies or to direct the analyst(s) to information previously disclosed to the Australian Securities Exchange). Neither Vuma nor third party sell-side analysts have access to South32’s internal financial information. Publication of the consensus figures should not be treated as an express or implied endorsement of the information by South32. South32 expressly disclaims any endorsement of or concurrence with the information and makes no comment about its own forecast performance.

South32’s actual performance for the period is not yet known and may differ from the consensus figures. A significant number of variable factors impact the Group’s financial results, including accounting determinations and external factors (such as fluctuations in exchange rates and commodity prices) immediately prior to the end of the financial year.

The South32 Group, its Directors and employees do not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information,
assume no liability whatsoever in relation to the information and undertake no obligation to update or revise it. The information does not constitute or contain investment advice or any recommendation in relation to South32 financial products.