Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 17/05/21

Contributors 14

  • Berenberg
  • Bernstein
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Goldman Sachs International
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Morgans
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
H1 FY21
CONSENSUS
17/05/21
H1 FY21
MIN
H1 FY21
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
14
4,032
3,977
4,090
Aluminium ('000 t)
14
1,614
1,601
1,626
Bauxite ('000 t)
14
28,076
27,585
28,873
Borates ('000 t)
13
248
239
257
Copper - mined ('000 t)
14
252
244
268
Copper - refined ('000 t)
14
114
102
127
Diamonds ('000 cts)
14
1,895
1,700
2,142
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
14
160,451
150,697
176,225
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
14
161,239
152,082
169,126
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
14
5,153
4,822
5,811
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
13
579
550
641
Uranium ('000 lbs)
14
206
-
1,640
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
14
197
146
356
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
13
101
90
114
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
14
19,733
17,676
22,629
Aluminium
14
5,610
5,179
6,246
Copper
14
3,603
2,847
4,311
Minerals
14
2,872
1,348
3,685
Other Operations
12
(2)
(97)
86
Intersegmental transactions
9
(95)
(314)
-
Product Group Revenue
14
31,756
29,401
35,301
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
14
14,750
12,923
17,362
Aluminium
14
1,683
1,162
2,179
Copper
14
2,095
1,558
2,687
Minerals
14
1,302
351
2,173
Other Operations
11
(68)
(490)
10
Intersegmental Transactions
8
(2)
(16)
-
Product Group EBITDA
14
19,776
17,159
23,530
Other Items
13
(592)
(3,148)
(109)
Exploration & evaluation
12
(111)
(290)
345
Underlying EBITDA
14
19,132
15,691
23,227
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
14
9,478
8,382
10,936
Aluminium
14
734
389
992
Copper
14
947
418
1,598
Minerals
14
583
159
967
Other Operations
9
(22)
(170)
122
Intersegmental transactions
8
(92)
(731)
-
Product Group Earnings
14
11,675
9,872
13,677
Other items
14
(517)
(2,001)
208
Exploration & Evaluation
12
(156)
(345)
-
Net Interest
14
(117)
(314)
39
Underlying Earnings
14
10,907
8,206
13,578
Other Financial Information
Ordinary dividends per share US$
12
4.21
3.22
7.76
Total dividends per share US$
14
4.29
3.22
7.76
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
11
-
-
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
14
6.71
5.48
8.17
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
10
1,284
1,246
1,617
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
10
371
371
371
Net Debt
14
(864)
(7,842)
4,420
Net Cash generated from operating activities
14
13,149
10,227
19,092
Capital Expenditure
14
(3,482)
(3,881)
(2,433)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
12
0.09
0.07
0.11
Free cash flow
12
9,624
6,347
15,298
Pilbara C1 unit cost
10
17.49
14.33
21.12
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Aluminium
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Copper
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Minerals
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Other Operations
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Total Rio Tinto Group
1
-
-
-
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
13
0.77
0.77
0.79
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
11
0.73
0.70
0.77
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
13
0.79
0.77
0.80
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
11
0.77
0.69
0.86
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
13
96.77
92.86
105.00
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
11
93.42
80.00
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
13
391.03
361.85
419.61
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
11
327.25
282.00
400.00
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
13
146.04
92.91
166.30
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
11
64.94
48.00
145.98
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
11
150.69
91.15
168.41
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
10
73.84
56.00
153.94

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.