Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 08/05/19

Contributors 16

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • CLSA
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Evans and Partners
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • HSBC
  • Investec
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
H1 FY19
CONSENSUS
08/05/19
H1 FY19
MIN
H1 FY19
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
15
4,075.77
4,026.99
4,193.00
Aluminium ('000 t)
15
1,643.72
1,591.50
1,961.69
Bauxite ('000 t)
15
27,012.62
24,966.91
28,800.00
Borates ('000 t)
14
245.27
235.00
256.00
Copper - mined ('000 t)
15
289.32
279.19
295.93
Copper - refined ('000 t)
14
108.54
63.29
123.57
Diamonds ('000 cts)
15
8,062.57
7,538.11
8,922.80
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
15
161,134.82
133,902.50
169,166.67
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
14
158,063.95
133,902.50
169,166.67
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
14
5,486.51
5,021.75
6,163.50
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
14
615.17
550.00
700.00
Uranium ('000 lbs)
15
2,737.34
857.50
3,973.84
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
15
202.10
149.29
234.36
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
12
86.75
-
160.58
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
15
10,570.24
8,903.91
11,280.88
Aluminium
15
5,533.56
4,512.21
6,588.18
Copper and Diamonds
15
2,896.83
2,570.17
3,254.86
Energy and Minerals
15
2,704.31
2,128.44
3,021.70
Other Operations
12
2.26
-
10.00
Intersegmental transactions
14
(7.13)
(44.00)
-
Product Group Revenue
15
21,700.09
18,481.77
23,390.71
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
15
7,146.03
5,529.94
8,051.61
Aluminium
15
1,353.49
866.27
1,948.91
Copper and Diamonds
15
1,180.74
905.31
1,588.58
Energy and Minerals
15
979.29
650.85
1,204.81
Other Operations
13
(58.23)
(422.00)
50.00
Intersegmental Transactions
9
0.56
-
5.00
Product Group EBITDA
15
10,609.41
8,461.09
12,278.91
Other Items
13
(433.76)
(615.50)
(156.15)
Exploration & evaluation
11
(117.81)
(250.00)
(70.00)
Underlying EBITDA
15
10,147.10
7,981.09
11,793.91
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
14
4,276.07
3,245.96
4,963.50
Aluminium
14
592.07
248.26
1,161.60
Copper and Diamonds
14
323.62
28.77
604.00
Energy and Minerals
14
351.95
213.31
458.15
Other Operations
13
(59.31)
(373.98)
50.00
Intersegmental transactions
9
(19.40)
(174.59)
-
Product Group Earnings
14
5,476.17
4,126.82
6,987.59
Other items
13
(295.05)
(690.00)
173.58
Exploration & Evaluation
11
(135.10)
(400.00)
(50.00)
Net Interest
14
(152.69)
(465.27)
44.91
Underlying Earnings
14
4,943.35
3,435.13
6,625.50
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
15
1.86
0.76
4.01
Share buy-back US$m
12
920.89
(600.00)
1,759.00
Underlying Earnings Per Share
15
3.01
2.10
3.84
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
13
1,255.10
353.51
1,697.70
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
11
464.11
371.20
1,278.02
Net Debt
13
5,057.21
2,511.26
8,641.64
Net Cash generated from operating activities
13
6,991.15
3,729.10
8,359.44
Capital Expenditure
14
(2,879.19)
(3,095.01)
(2,459.30)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
14
0.15
0.08
0.90
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
10
69,293.56
51,734.19
87,406.50
Aluminium
10
19,821.97
11,950.58
25,481.39
Copper & Diamonds
10
16,322.69
10,817.91
28,038.25
Energy & Minerals
10
5,854.13
-
10,902.06
Other Operations
8
(2,651.74)
(7,816.12)
-
Total Rio Tinto Group
10
109,170.97
78,962.12
130,083.62
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
15
0.71
0.67
0.75
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
9
0.73
0.69
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
14
0.83
0.74
1.35
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
8
0.79
0.71
0.87
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
15
88.77
85.30
100.30
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
9
91.26
86.18
95.25
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
15
287.80
275.00
297.28
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
9
301.48
280.91
325.52
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
14
79.36
61.83
120.97
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
9
52.29
45.00
63.78
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
13
81.07
69.40
88.85
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
8
58.85
52.00
64.59
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
15
95.89
88.85
107.15
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
9
73.68
58.00
89.43
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
15
203.26
180.00
218.78
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
9
136.24
124.40
163.24

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, each of the contributing analysts listed has submitted their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures.