Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 26/10/20

Contributors 17

  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Evans and Partners
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Goldman Sachs International
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY22
CONSENSUS
26/10/20
FY22
MIN
FY22
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
17
8,054
7,780
8,429
Aluminium ('000 t)
17
3,084
2,866
3,339
Bauxite ('000 t)
17
57,747
43,534
62,239
Borates ('000 t)
16
515
496
540
Copper - mined ('000 t)
17
584
520
655
Copper - refined ('000 t)
17
248
204
293
Diamonds ('000 cts)
17
3,192
737
4,346
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
17
344,286
322,902
356,163
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
17
344,589
322,902
356,163
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
16
12,020
10,512
15,266
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
16
1,354
1,200
1,624
Uranium ('000 lbs)
15
386
-
3,468
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
16
319
241
455
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
13
188
128
287
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
20,809
17,806
23,415
Aluminium
17
10,087
8,971
11,700
Copper and Diamonds
17
5,967
4,368
7,143
Energy and Minerals
17
4,844
2,838
6,390
Other Operations
13
(5)
(148)
20
Intersegmental transactions
14
(24)
(106)
-
Product Group Revenue
17
41,683
36,949
45,307
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
12,751
9,679
15,007
Aluminium
17
2,245
1,612
3,963
Copper and Diamonds
17
2,657
1,066
3,742
Energy and Minerals
17
1,574
709
2,709
Other Operations
14
(79)
(300)
-
Intersegmental Transactions
10
(2)
(35)
11
Product Group EBITDA
17
19,160
15,286
24,550
Other Items
16
(702)
(1,511)
(313)
Exploration & evaluation
13
(284)
(600)
(160)
Underlying EBITDA
17
18,283
14,436
23,826
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
7,324
5,338
8,913
Aluminium
17
727
112
1,945
Copper and Diamonds
17
800
(112)
1,526
Energy and Minerals
17
596
290
1,064
Other Operations
13
(149)
(744)
-
Intersegmental transactions
8
(106)
(808)
-
Product Group Earnings
17
9,283
7,126
12,519
Other items
17
(493)
(1,670)
140
Exploration & Evaluation
13
(201)
(455)
(100)
Net Interest
17
(263)
(848)
32
Underlying Earnings
17
8,374
5,902
11,504
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
17
3.20
2.04
5.69
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
13
-
-
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
17
5.12
3.65
7.11
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
15
1,267
1,154
1,624
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
14
371
371
371
Net Debt
17
1,271
(5,697)
5,923
Net Cash generated from operating activities
17
13,397
10,277
17,090
Capital Expenditure
17
(6,659)
(7,440)
(4,895)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
17
0.09
0.07
0.10
Free cash flow
17
6,658
3,584
11,190
Pilbara C1 unit cost
15
15.22
13.06
18.16
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
5
78,110
60,194
89,553
Aluminium
5
20,235
10,049
28,787
Copper & Diamonds
5
16,472
13,500
18,693
Energy & Minerals
5
6,701
-
10,913
Other Operations
4
(5,513)
(7,116)
(4,004)
Total Rio Tinto Group
5
115,360
92,300
134,389
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
17
0.73
0.69
0.81
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
13
0.73
0.70
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
16
0.76
0.72
0.84
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
13
0.75
0.71
0.78
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
17
82.27
74.50
90.72
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
13
92.12
79.49
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
17
298.76
250.00
340.19
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
13
306.01
275.00
380.65
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
16
70.21
60.09
79.50
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
12
57.76
47.32
77.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
16
75.57
42.50
88.75
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
12
65.82
56.00
80.00

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.