Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 01/02/21

Contributors 16

  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Evans and Partners
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Morgans
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY22
CONSENSUS
01/02/21
FY22
MIN
FY22
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
16
8,058
7,780
8,429
Aluminium ('000 t)
16
3,213
2,930
3,390
Bauxite ('000 t)
16
58,025
55,800
60,170
Borates ('000 t)
16
508
480
540
Copper - mined ('000 t)
16
573
520
644
Copper - refined ('000 t)
16
244
208
304
Diamonds ('000 cts)
16
3,365
1,800
4,320
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
342,143
323,452
365,500
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
341,528
323,452
365,500
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
15
11,844
10,801
15,266
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
16
1,272
970
1,624
Uranium ('000 lbs)
15
219
-
3,280
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
15
320
241
423
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
13
181
132
254
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
23,987
12,496
28,634
Aluminium
16
10,653
9,594
12,144
Copper and Diamonds
16
6,158
2,113
8,805
Energy and Minerals
16
4,929
2,848
6,810
Other Operations
13
386
(150)
5,099
Intersegmental transactions
12
(21)
(150)
-
Product Group Revenue
16
46,025
34,934
55,001
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
15,538
5,613
20,368
Aluminium
16
2,480
1,834
4,461
Copper and Diamonds
16
3,099
1,572
5,335
Energy and Minerals
16
1,683
709
3,095
Other Operations
13
78
(410)
1,732
Intersegmental Transactions
7
(5)
(35)
1
Product Group EBITDA
16
22,862
12,738
30,082
Other Items
16
(1,304)
(12,314)
930
Exploration & evaluation
11
(253)
(480)
(160)
Underlying EBITDA
16
21,384
11,634
29,147
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
9,197
2,524
12,637
Aluminium
16
862
330
2,290
Copper and Diamonds
16
1,070
167
1,868
Energy and Minerals
16
653
-
1,260
Other Operations
11
(140)
(744)
-
Intersegmental transactions
7
(5)
(25)
-
Product Group Earnings
16
11,683
5,097
15,190
Other items
15
(519)
(1,440)
400
Exploration & Evaluation
13
(281)
(1,332)
(100)
Net Interest
16
(209)
(697)
161
Underlying Earnings
16
10,760
4,639
15,185
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
16
4.26
1.21
6.78
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
12
-
-
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
16
6.73
2.42
9.44
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
12
1,270
1,133
1,624
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
11
371
371
371
Net Debt
16
(594)
(8,655)
7,423
Net Cash generated from operating activities
16
16,117
7,936
19,940
Capital Expenditure
16
(6,664)
(7,420)
(5,002)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
16
0.21
0.07
2.10
Free cash flow
14
9,723
5,678
13,674
Pilbara C1 unit cost
13
15.81
13.75
18.41
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
5
78,110
60,194
89,553
Aluminium
5
20,235
10,049
28,787
Copper & Diamonds
5
16,472
13,500
18,693
Energy & Minerals
5
6,701
-
10,913
Other Operations
4
(5,513)
(7,116)
(4,004)
Total Rio Tinto Group
5
115,360
92,300
134,389
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
16
0.76
0.72
0.85
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
12
0.74
0.70
0.77
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
15
0.78
0.75
0.84
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
12
0.77
0.69
0.86
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
16
86.10
78.50
100.00
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
92.18
79.49
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
16
329.59
266.49
417.31
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
306.95
275.00
354.40
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
16
83.04
40.00
110.00
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
12
58.74
48.00
83.00
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
13
94.31
75.97
115.00
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
10
64.34
56.00
75.00

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.