Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 01/02/21

Contributors 16

  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Evans and Partners
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Morgans
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY21
CONSENSUS
01/02/21
FY21
MIN
FY21
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
16
8,024
7,852
8,175
Aluminium ('000 t)
16
3,224
3,119
3,339
Bauxite ('000 t)
16
57,520
56,400
58,349
Borates ('000 t)
16
504
480
540
Copper - mined ('000 t)
16
532
502
570
Copper - refined ('000 t)
16
226
206
273
Diamonds ('000 cts)
16
3,663
2,070
5,344
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
333,705
327,300
351,150
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
332,508
327,300
340,037
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
15
11,300
10,801
11,623
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
16
1,189
1,000
1,296
Uranium ('000 lbs)
15
773
-
3,422
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
15
378
309
498
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
13
193
155
241
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
29,077
16,365
35,054
Aluminium
16
10,673
9,439
13,024
Copper and Diamonds
16
6,404
1,881
7,847
Energy and Minerals
16
5,135
2,478
6,215
Other Operations
13
398
(150)
5,253
Intersegmental transactions
12
(21)
(150)
-
Product Group Revenue
16
51,596
39,366
60,792
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
20,502
9,158
26,361
Aluminium
16
2,540
1,447
3,364
Copper and Diamonds
16
3,396
2,356
4,665
Energy and Minerals
16
1,956
674
3,126
Other Operations
13
85
(360)
1,782
Intersegmental Transactions
7
(5)
(35)
-
Product Group EBITDA
16
28,461
16,953
35,408
Other Items
16
(1,422)
(14,698)
1,455
Exploration & evaluation
11
(274)
(480)
(169)
Underlying EBITDA
16
26,851
15,849
34,410
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
12,639
4,898
16,759
Aluminium
16
906
28
1,560
Copper and Diamonds
16
1,303
689
1,933
Energy and Minerals
16
768
-
1,610
Other Operations
11
(149)
(794)
-
Intersegmental transactions
7
(5)
(25)
-
Product Group Earnings
16
15,512
7,745
19,593
Other items
15
(563)
(1,793)
600
Exploration & Evaluation
13
(282)
(1,137)
(100)
Net Interest
16
(242)
(664)
4
Underlying Earnings
16
14,514
7,200
19,441
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
16
5.94
2.06
8.42
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
13
657
-
8,535
Underlying Earnings Per Share
16
9.07
4.12
12.10
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
12
1,270
1,133
1,624
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
11
371
371
371
Net Debt
16
74
(3,804)
5,471
Net Cash generated from operating activities
16
19,749
11,836
24,171
Capital Expenditure
16
(6,852)
(7,365)
(5,572)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
16
0.15
0.07
1.10
Free cash flow
14
13,201
7,086
17,108
Pilbara C1 unit cost
13
15.73
14.30
17.82
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
10
70,953
46,389
93,283
Aluminium
10
17,897
10,069
28,787
Copper & Diamonds
10
13,974
10,183
17,920
Energy & Minerals
10
6,344
3,372
10,540
Other Operations
9
(7,715)
(16,790)
(137)
Total Rio Tinto Group
10
102,224
54,998
132,167
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
16
0.75
0.70
0.81
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
12
0.74
0.70
0.77
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
15
0.78
0.74
0.80
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
12
0.77
0.69
0.86
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
16
88.11
78.82
97.50
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
92.18
79.49
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
16
347.25
317.80
395.78
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
306.95
275.00
354.40
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
16
106.12
50.07
135.00
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
12
58.74
48.00
83.00
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
13
117.74
85.62
145.59
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
10
64.34
56.00
75.00

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.