Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 26/10/20

Contributors 19

  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Evans and Partners
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Goldman Sachs International
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY21
CONSENSUS
26/10/20
FY21
MIN
FY21
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
19
8,051
7,784
8,429
Aluminium ('000 t)
19
3,158
2,970
3,339
Bauxite ('000 t)
19
58,058
46,034
61,885
Borates ('000 t)
18
514
492
540
Copper - mined ('000 t)
19
553
483
591
Copper - refined ('000 t)
19
236
189
275
Diamonds ('000 cts)
19
4,723
2,359
13,996
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
338,140
317,902
351,150
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
338,079
317,902
350,163
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
18
11,664
10,408
14,428
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
18
1,286
1,000
1,529
Uranium ('000 lbs)
17
1,295
-
3,520
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
18
380
266
490
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
15
201
128
286
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
23,599
16,060
27,208
Aluminium
19
9,955
7,913
11,162
Copper and Diamonds
19
6,179
4,758
7,220
Energy and Minerals
19
4,965
2,425
6,291
Other Operations
15
(2)
(148)
20
Intersegmental transactions
16
(31)
(150)
-
Product Group Revenue
19
44,671
38,230
48,452
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
15,581
9,925
18,846
Aluminium
19
2,117
1,475
3,079
Copper and Diamonds
19
2,931
1,403
3,902
Energy and Minerals
19
1,729
564
2,755
Other Operations
16
(84)
(430)
1
Intersegmental Transactions
11
(2)
(35)
10
Product Group EBITDA
19
22,287
17,302
26,086
Other Items
18
(708)
(1,426)
(306)
Exploration & evaluation
15
(294)
(600)
(169)
Underlying EBITDA
19
21,384
16,198
25,354
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
9,307
5,621
11,869
Aluminium
19
630
133
1,363
Copper and Diamonds
19
950
58
1,649
Energy and Minerals
19
659
218
1,033
Other Operations
15
(161)
(794)
-
Intersegmental transactions
10
(73)
(696)
-
Product Group Earnings
19
11,380
8,081
13,918
Other items
19
(504)
(1,651)
208
Exploration & Evaluation
15
(211)
(455)
(100)
Net Interest
19
(244)
(720)
-
Underlying Earnings
19
10,465
7,506
12,651
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
19
4.07
2.18
6.26
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
16
351
-
5,613
Underlying Earnings Per Share
19
6.41
4.36
7.82
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
15
1,267
1,154
1,624
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
14
371
371
371
Net Debt
19
1,810
(2,225)
6,169
Net Cash generated from operating activities
19
15,246
11,558
18,465
Capital Expenditure
19
(6,808)
(7,438)
(5,644)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
19
0.09
0.07
0.10
Free cash flow
18
8,581
6,855
12,234
Pilbara C1 unit cost
16
15.23
14.06
17.47
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
10
69,242
46,389
89,491
Aluminium
10
16,374
1,435
28,787
Copper & Diamonds
10
13,670
10,183
17,920
Energy & Minerals
10
6,211
2,605
10,540
Other Operations
8
(6,580)
(15,809)
(137)
Total Rio Tinto Group
10
100,233
54,998
132,167
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
19
0.72
0.65
0.76
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
14
0.72
0.70
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
18
0.75
0.73
0.80
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
14
0.75
0.71
0.78
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
19
80.82
75.00
92.99
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
14
92.02
79.49
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
19
302.45
272.16
336.25
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
14
304.88
275.00
380.65
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
18
81.91
50.00
96.75
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
13
57.71
47.32
77.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
17
91.37
75.00
105.00
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
13
65.76
56.00
80.00

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.