Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 24/07/20

Contributors 16

  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY21
CONSENSUS
24/07/20
FY21
MIN
FY21
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
16
8,039
7,767
8,429
Aluminium ('000 t)
16
3,150
2,965
3,323
Bauxite ('000 t)
16
57,602
45,851
62,350
Borates ('000 t)
15
514
500
540
Copper - mined ('000 t)
16
569
506
618
Copper - refined ('000 t)
16
246
209
292
Diamonds ('000 cts)
16
4,197
2,432
12,338
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
342,011
327,921
364,491
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
340,721
327,921
350,163
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
15
11,941
10,641
14,428
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
15
1,301
1,000
1,529
Uranium ('000 lbs)
14
1,124
-
3,520
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
15
379
264
487
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
12
189
148
252
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
21,056
18,136
25,089
Aluminium
16
9,589
7,441
11,048
Copper and Diamonds
16
5,714
4,707
6,693
Energy and Minerals
16
4,857
2,391
5,634
Other Operations
13
3
(33)
20
Intersegmental transactions
13
(16)
(80)
-
Product Group Revenue
16
41,205
36,299
43,968
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
13,363
10,869
16,608
Aluminium
16
1,969
526
3,704
Copper and Diamonds
16
2,323
1,480
3,151
Energy and Minerals
16
1,674
551
2,361
Other Operations
14
(84)
(408)
-
Intersegmental Transactions
10
1
-
10
Product Group EBITDA
16
19,256
15,023
21,382
Other Items
15
(683)
(1,456)
(306)
Exploration & evaluation
13
(276)
(600)
-
Underlying EBITDA
16
18,392
14,143
20,621
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
7,839
6,212
9,852
Aluminium
16
441
(640)
1,699
Copper and Diamonds
16
646
83
1,514
Energy and Minerals
16
640
206
894
Other Operations
12
(145)
(829)
-
Intersegmental transactions
9
(75)
(673)
-
Product Group Earnings
16
9,414
7,141
11,124
Other items
16
(537)
(1,135)
(1)
Exploration & Evaluation
12
(233)
(455)
(100)
Net Interest
16
(311)
(757)
-
Underlying Earnings
16
8,391
5,979
9,943
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
16
3.24
2.69
4.34
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
13
82
-
1,070
Underlying Earnings Per Share
16
5.15
3.70
6.30
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
14
1,302
1,237
1,630
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
12
371
371
371
Net Debt
16
2,839
(1,298)
6,516
Net Cash generated from operating activities
16
13,368
10,850
16,178
Capital Expenditure
16
(6,820)
(7,130)
(6,028)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
16
0.09
0.07
0.10
Free cash flow
15
6,487
4,405
9,606
Pilbara C1 unit cost
14
14.57
12.96
15.87
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
11
73,658
46,389
91,643
Aluminium
11
17,770
266
31,927
Copper & Diamonds
11
13,924
10,095
16,008
Energy & Minerals
11
4,967
-
10,773
Other Operations
9
(5,461)
(15,809)
5,468
Total Rio Tinto Group
10
106,033
54,998
131,610
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
16
0.69
0.63
0.76
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
13
0.71
0.66
0.75
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
16
0.74
0.68
0.84
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
13
0.76
0.71
0.85
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
16
76.94
69.17
86.18
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
13
92.08
79.49
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
16
275.86
214.78
300.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
13
300.07
268.08
380.65
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
16
72.02
58.34
87.77
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
13
57.32
47.32
70.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
15
78.75
65.00
85.00
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
12
64.65
56.00
75.01

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.