Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 05/05/20

Contributors 19

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Investec
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Morgans
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • Societe Generale
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY21
CONSENSUS
05/05/20
FY21
MIN
FY21
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
19
8,056
7,747
8,429
Aluminium ('000 t)
19
3,250
2,850
3,323
Bauxite ('000 t)
19
58,240
55,800
62,350
Borates ('000 t)
18
515
492
540
Copper - mined ('000 t)
19
589
554
618
Copper - refined ('000 t)
18
245
220
289
Diamonds ('000 cts)
19
4,992
1,316
14,600
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
342,759
318,000
364,491
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
341,799
318,000
351,500
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
18
11,921
10,620
14,894
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
18
1,345
1,040
1,940
Uranium ('000 lbs)
17
1,327
-
3,588
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
18
397
273
631
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
15
200
159
257
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
18,586
11,177
21,651
Aluminium
19
10,318
8,254
11,878
Copper and Diamonds
19
5,606
4,397
6,618
Energy and Minerals
19
4,767
2,450
5,988
Other Operations
16
120
(33)
1,811
Intersegmental transactions
17
(15)
(80)
-
Product Group Revenue
19
39,364
33,207
44,314
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
11,311
5,131
13,944
Aluminium
19
2,388
1,302
3,976
Copper and Diamonds
19
2,254
1,211
3,153
Energy and Minerals
19
1,562
949
2,301
Other Operations
16
(55)
(230)
78
Intersegmental Transactions
12
1
-
10
Product Group EBITDA
19
17,469
11,508
22,647
Other Items
17
(689)
(1,240)
(325)
Exploration & evaluation
16
(264)
(600)
-
Underlying EBITDA
19
16,631
10,068
21,896
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
6,436
2,395
8,299
Aluminium
19
719
(17)
1,916
Copper and Diamonds
19
614
(204)
1,178
Energy and Minerals
19
630
407
1,050
Other Operations
15
(133)
(829)
-
Intersegmental transactions
11
(62)
(673)
-
Product Group Earnings
19
8,258
4,514
11,463
Other items
18
(466)
(1,084)
(1)
Exploration & Evaluation
15
(241)
(600)
(100)
Net Interest
18
(311)
(715)
-
Underlying Earnings
19
7,332
3,816
10,629
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
19
2.82
0.90
4.39
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
16
-
-
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
19
4.44
1.80
6.56
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
17
1,291
1,208
1,630
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
15
372
371
383
Net Debt
19
3,677
(2,668)
8,731
Net Cash generated from operating activities
19
12,226
7,138
17,160
Capital Expenditure
19
(6,676)
(7,259)
(6,107)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
18
0.09
0.07
0.10
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
11
68,276
45,054
93,283
Aluminium
11
17,864
407
32,508
Copper & Diamonds
11
13,341
9,719
16,741
Energy & Minerals
11
5,534
-
10,644
Other Operations
9
(6,552)
(16,790)
5,497
Total Rio Tinto Group
11
99,655
54,998
131,011
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
19
0.68
0.63
0.79
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
14
0.72
0.67
0.75
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
19
0.75
0.68
0.85
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
14
0.78
0.71
0.85
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
19
80.25
74.84
95.00
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
14
93.56
83.19
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
19
268.50
219.20
300.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
14
301.84
267.08
380.65
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
18
62.36
35.00
82.77
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
13
56.29
43.21
69.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
16
70.39
60.00
79.00
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
12
63.32
50.00
75.01

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.