Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 24/01/20

Contributors 16

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • HSBC
  • Investec
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY21
CONSENSUS
24/01/20
FY21
MIN
FY21
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
16
8,020
7,480
8,429
Aluminium ('000 t)
16
3,276
3,050
3,349
Bauxite ('000 t)
16
58,584
53,800
66,874
Borates ('000 t)
15
511
480
540
Copper - mined ('000 t)
16
600
555
656
Copper - refined ('000 t)
16
244
165
290
Diamonds ('000 cts)
16
5,643
1,286
18,400
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
348,062
335,160
364,491
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
346,648
335,160
355,000
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
15
11,832
9,469
14,894
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
15
1,374
1,040
1,940
Uranium ('000 lbs)
14
1,543
-
3,588
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
14
408
313
555
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
12
206
160
357
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
18,567
10,803
21,764
Aluminium
16
10,558
8,289
11,704
Copper and Diamonds
16
6,187
5,084
9,355
Energy and Minerals
16
4,907
3,594
5,869
Other Operations
13
4
-
21
Intersegmental transactions
13
(13)
(80)
-
Product Group Revenue
16
40,211
34,173
43,808
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
10,950
4,674
13,289
Aluminium
16
2,455
1,435
4,401
Copper and Diamonds
16
2,705
1,622
4,905
Energy and Minerals
16
1,598
1,017
2,237
Other Operations
14
(82)
(232)
-
Intersegmental Transactions
9
1
-
10
Product Group EBITDA
16
17,637
12,295
20,462
Other Items
15
(728)
(1,236)
(325)
Exploration & evaluation
14
(251)
(600)
-
Underlying EBITDA
16
16,735
11,325
19,729
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
6,182
2,261
7,876
Aluminium
16
850
(178)
2,132
Copper and Diamonds
16
789
97
1,538
Energy and Minerals
16
607
385
1,004
Other Operations
13
(148)
(837)
-
Intersegmental transactions
9
(75)
(676)
-
Product Group Earnings
16
8,266
4,639
9,959
Other items
16
(464)
(1,207)
358
Exploration & Evaluation
13
(263)
(800)
(100)
Net Interest
16
(317)
(765)
-
Underlying Earnings
16
7,272
3,821
8,956
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
16
2.76
1.65
3.82
Share buy-back US$m
13
-
-
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
16
4.49
2.43
5.50
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
13
1,273
1,178
1,624
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
12
370
358
371
Net Debt
16
4,375
(1,048)
10,173
Net Cash generated from operating activities
16
12,195
7,859
15,302
Capital Expenditure
16
(6,396)
(6,921)
(4,917)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
16
0.66
0.07
8.14
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
11
64,890
33,242
83,137
Aluminium
11
17,931
7,297
34,004
Copper & Diamonds
11
13,939
10,497
19,574
Energy & Minerals
11
5,662
-
11,250
Other Operations
8
(4,736)
(15,809)
6,023
Total Rio Tinto Group
11
94,383
22
128,156
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
16
0.70
0.62
0.75
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
11
0.73
0.68
0.80
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
16
0.77
0.72
0.82
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
11
0.79
0.71
0.86
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
16
83.85
74.84
92.99
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
11
91.39
83.19
100.76
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
16
288.35
250.16
326.59
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
11
311.35
259.00
380.65
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
14
62.46
50.00
79.17
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
10
54.47
43.21
66.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
14
70.74
60.00
79.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
10
62.38
50.00
75.01
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
16
73.18
65.00
85.00
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
11
73.35
57.00
89.43
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
15
152.09
120.00
170.00
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
11
141.35
110.00
158.98

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.