Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 08/05/19

Contributors 17

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • CLSA
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Evans and Partners
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • HSBC
  • Investec
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY20
CONSENSUS
08/05/19
FY20
MIN
FY20
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
17
8,187.18
7,893.30
8,386.00
Aluminium ('000 t)
17
3,322.68
3,214.60
3,568.00
Bauxite ('000 t)
17
61,766.13
54,788.99
71,500.00
Borates ('000 t)
16
503.47
480.00
519.60
Copper - mined ('000 t)
17
595.37
536.31
652.80
Copper - refined ('000 t)
16
245.75
151.74
293.31
Diamonds ('000 cts)
17
16,593.12
11,556.46
19,669.32
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
17
351,335.72
338,772.20
364,490.57
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
16
351,215.28
340,000.00
360,985.00
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
16
12,104.38
11,232.83
15,262.00
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
16
1,395.31
1,100.00
1,834.00
Uranium ('000 lbs)
17
3,349.83
-
7,947.68
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
17
395.56
311.78
524.74
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
14
166.60
-
321.16
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
18,410.73
10,536.29
22,177.39
Aluminium
17
11,655.62
9,701.21
13,385.34
Copper and Diamonds
17
6,364.39
5,229.26
7,337.47
Energy and Minerals
17
5,216.07
4,254.26
6,229.12
Other Operations
14
3.86
-
20.00
Intersegmental transactions
16
(13.34)
(80.00)
-
Product Group Revenue
17
41,637.44
34,483.34
46,221.32
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
11,035.80
4,411.64
13,851.39
Aluminium
17
3,091.69
2,240.39
4,133.16
Copper and Diamonds
17
2,733.55
1,915.53
4,115.79
Energy and Minerals
17
1,760.52
799.24
2,597.52
Other Operations
15
(119.89)
(944.00)
-
Intersegmental Transactions
11
0.91
-
10.00
Product Group EBITDA
17
18,516.36
11,810.35
22,890.41
Other Items
15
(782.92)
(1,227.55)
(447.43)
Exploration & evaluation
13
(225.08)
(500.00)
(150.00)
Underlying EBITDA
17
17,653.43
10,840.35
22,040.41
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
16
6,173.35
2,009.31
8,278.31
Aluminium
16
1,416.92
825.66
2,136.90
Copper and Diamonds
16
756.40
18.64
1,405.68
Energy and Minerals
16
640.11
361.61
911.36
Other Operations
15
(121.15)
(766.65)
-
Intersegmental transactions
11
(52.53)
(577.84)
-
Product Group Earnings
16
8,837.09
4,943.48
11,976.28
Other items
16
(417.71)
(1,028.99)
365.58
Exploration & Evaluation
13
(243.05)
(800.00)
(100.00)
Net Interest
16
(319.55)
(791.94)
-
Underlying Earnings
16
7,902.35
3,951.26
11,113.09
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
17
3.00
1.44
5.05
Share buy-back US$m
13
297.44
-
2,500.00
Underlying Earnings Per Share
17
4.91
2.40
6.78
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
15
1,213.97
-
1,643.00
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
13
343.75
-
392.20
Net Debt
17
4,231.17
436.88
10,925.22
Net Cash generated from operating activities
16
12,686.54
7,130.58
17,133.00
Capital Expenditure
17
(6,333.11)
(7,723.11)
(5,630.18)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
15
0.21
0.08
1.10
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Aluminium
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Copper & Diamonds
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Energy & Minerals
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Other Operations
2
-
-
-
Total Rio Tinto Group
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
17
0.72
0.66
0.75
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
12
0.73
0.69
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
16
0.83
0.71
1.40
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
11
0.79
0.71
0.87
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
17
92.84
86.19
99.79
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
92.80
86.18
100.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
17
299.91
259.91
325.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
309.66
280.91
369.05
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
15
59.54
47.00
69.75
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
11
50.98
41.21
63.78
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
15
67.61
55.00
76.98
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
11
58.43
50.00
65.00
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
17
85.87
70.00
100.00
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
12
74.17
58.00
89.43
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
17
165.19
140.00
191.00
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
12
127.60
-
163.24

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, each of the contributing analysts listed has submitted their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures.