Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 26/10/20

Contributors 19

  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Evans and Partners
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Goldman Sachs International
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY20
CONSENSUS
26/10/20
FY20
MIN
FY20
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
19
7,977
7,852
8,124
Aluminium ('000 t)
19
3,170
3,094
3,223
Bauxite ('000 t)
19
57,117
56,493
57,849
Borates ('000 t)
18
511
500
524
Copper - mined ('000 t)
19
509
486
526
Copper - refined ('000 t)
19
154
137
193
Diamonds ('000 cts)
19
13,490
11,129
14,859
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
332,153
328,163
337,671
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
329,478
327,123
333,204
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
18
10,658
9,718
11,623
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
18
1,170
1,108
1,210
Uranium ('000 lbs)
19
2,545
1,372
3,520
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
18
274
254
300
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
15
140
116
180
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
25,695
24,647
28,092
Aluminium
19
9,428
8,713
10,595
Copper and Diamonds
19
4,676
3,617
5,081
Energy and Minerals
19
4,939
2,783
5,558
Other Operations
15
(1)
(148)
18
Intersegmental transactions
16
(47)
(150)
87
Product Group Revenue
19
44,699
43,379
46,532
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
17,746
16,925
18,840
Aluminium
19
1,886
1,643
2,200
Copper and Diamonds
19
1,655
1,319
2,217
Energy and Minerals
19
1,683
652
1,986
Other Operations
16
(71)
(319)
1
Intersegmental Transactions
11
1
(35)
114
Product Group EBITDA
19
22,910
21,928
24,475
Other Items
18
(684)
(1,231)
(393)
Exploration & evaluation
15
(295)
(580)
(169)
Underlying EBITDA
19
22,029
21,029
23,350
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
10,771
10,035
11,569
Aluminium
19
444
239
629
Copper and Diamonds
19
235
(218)
665
Energy and Minerals
19
586
274
731
Other Operations
15
(145)
(698)
-
Intersegmental transactions
10
(54)
(483)
-
Product Group Earnings
19
11,893
11,068
12,744
Other items
19
(504)
(1,217)
(180)
Exploration & Evaluation
15
(230)
(455)
(118)
Net Interest
19
(226)
(818)
-
Underlying Earnings
19
10,982
10,057
11,976
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
19
4.25
3.51
5.10
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
16
169
-
208
Underlying Earnings Per Share
19
6.74
6.14
7.36
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
15
1,273
1,244
1,624
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
14
371
371
371
Net Debt
19
2,316
(260)
5,470
Net Cash generated from operating activities
19
14,707
12,066
17,154
Capital Expenditure
19
(6,026)
(6,245)
(5,510)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
18
0.09
0.07
0.10
Free cash flow
18
8,770
6,094
11,789
Pilbara C1 unit cost
18
15.19
14.35
16.63
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
2
73,460
58,442
88,477
Aluminium
2
4,075
2,057
6,094
Copper & Diamonds
2
10,865
7,931
13,800
Energy & Minerals
2
3,779
2,602
4,956
Other Operations
3
(4,748)
(14,245)
-
Total Rio Tinto Group
2
85,057
63,178
106,936
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
19
0.69
0.68
0.70
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
16
0.73
0.70
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
18
0.74
0.69
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
15
0.76
0.71
0.83
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
19
75.75
74.40
77.65
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
16
91.92
79.49
130.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
19
273.12
267.63
277.01
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
16
304.77
268.00
380.65
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
18
94.11
86.89
102.48
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
15
57.18
47.32
77.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
17
100.73
95.10
104.05
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
15
65.09
56.00
80.00

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.