Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 23/07/21

Contributors

  • 14 H1 FY21 based on
  • 15 FY21 based on
  • 15 FY22 based on
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
H1 FY21
CONSENSUS
23/07/21
FY21
CONSENSUS
23/07/21
FY22
CONSENSUS
23/07/21
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
4,043
8,062
8,087
Aluminium ('000 t)
1,580
3,160
3,161
Bauxite ('000 t)
27,264
56,106
57,426
Borates ('000 t)
248
496
503
Copper - mined ('000 t)
238
511
569
Copper - refined ('000 t)
106
210
228
Diamonds ('000 cts)
1,847
3,631
3,409
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
152,424
323,097
340,064
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
153,859
323,956
339,566
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
5,050
10,898
11,839
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
582
976
1,178
Uranium ('000 lbs)
46
175
84
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
182
356
306
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
100
185
180
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
21,491
44,099
33,342
Aluminium
5,799
11,811
12,044
Copper
3,494
7,333
7,186
Minerals
3,037
5,993
5,524
Other Operations
(2)
(4)
(4)
Intersegmental transactions
(220)
(424)
(423)
Product Group Revenue
33,646
68,893
57,755
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
16,098
33,076
23,251
Aluminium
1,937
3,955
4,022
Copper
2,069
4,340
3,980
Minerals
1,523
2,802
2,191
Other Operations
(28)
(54)
(59)
Intersegmental Transactions
(4)
(8)
(5)
Product Group EBITDA
21,604
44,128
33,398
Other Items
(379)
(751)
(761)
Exploration & evaluation
(177)
(356)
(317)
Underlying EBITDA
21,086
43,092
32,383
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
10,292
21,083
14,346
Aluminium
930
1,896
1,928
Copper
897
1,889
1,714
Minerals
637
1,221
941
Other Operations
(31)
(62)
(63)
Intersegmental transactions
(76)
(158)
(108)
Product Group Earnings
12,683
25,944
18,813
Other items
(426)
(846)
(809)
Exploration & Evaluation
(153)
(297)
(242)
Net Interest
(119)
(232)
(179)
Underlying Earnings
12,007
24,609
17,615
Other Financial Information
Ordinary dividends per share US$
4.93
11.00
7.56
Total dividends per share US$
5.30
12.11
7.97
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
-
-
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
7.33
15.18
10.85
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
1,247
1,248
1,248
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
371
371
371
Net Debt
(2,252)
(4,847)
(4,046)
Net Cash generated from operating activities
13,339
28,812
23,237
Capital Expenditure
(3,508)
(7,362)
(7,185)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
0.08
0.09
0.09
Free cash flow
9,399
21,580
15,898
Pilbara C1 unit cost
17.94
18.49
17.46
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
n/a
85,077
85,218
Aluminium
n/a
18,932
22,125
Copper
n/a
16,429
15,637
Minerals
n/a
4,800
6,390
Other Operations
n/a
(1,228)
(6,016)
Total Rio Tinto Group
-
128,055
90,330
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
0.77
0.77
0.76
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
0.73
0.73
0.73
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
0.80
0.80
0.80
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
0.77
0.77
0.77
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
101.99
104.21
104.77
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
96.03
96.03
96.43
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
412.57
416.07
399.91
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
319.67
319.67
327.70
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
170.99
164.86
116.99
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
59.50
59.50
60.65
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
174.11
176.48
132.00
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
67.94
67.94
69.28

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.