Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 26/10/20

Contributors

  • 19 FY20 based on
  • 19 FY21 based on
  • 17 FY22 based on
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
FY20
CONSENSUS
26/10/20
FY21
CONSENSUS
26/10/20
FY22
CONSENSUS
26/10/20
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
7,977
8,051
8,054
Aluminium ('000 t)
3,170
3,158
3,084
Bauxite ('000 t)
57,117
58,058
57,747
Borates ('000 t)
511
514
515
Copper - mined ('000 t)
509
553
584
Copper - refined ('000 t)
154
236
248
Diamonds ('000 cts)
13,490
4,723
3,192
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
332,153
338,140
344,286
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
329,478
338,079
344,589
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
10,658
11,664
12,020
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
1,170
1,286
1,354
Uranium ('000 lbs)
2,545
1,295
386
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
274
380
319
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
140
201
188
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
25,695
23,599
20,809
Aluminium
9,428
9,955
10,087
Copper and Diamonds
4,676
6,179
5,967
Energy and Minerals
4,939
4,965
4,844
Other Operations
(1)
(2)
(5)
Intersegmental transactions
(47)
(31)
(24)
Product Group Revenue
44,699
44,671
41,683
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
17,746
15,581
12,751
Aluminium
1,886
2,117
2,245
Copper and Diamonds
1,655
2,931
2,657
Energy and Minerals
1,683
1,729
1,574
Other Operations
(71)
(84)
(79)
Intersegmental Transactions
1
(2)
(2)
Product Group EBITDA
22,910
22,287
19,160
Other Items
(684)
(708)
(702)
Exploration & evaluation
(295)
(294)
(284)
Underlying EBITDA
22,029
21,384
18,283
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
10,771
9,307
7,324
Aluminium
444
630
727
Copper and Diamonds
235
950
800
Energy and Minerals
586
659
596
Other Operations
(145)
(161)
(149)
Intersegmental transactions
(54)
(73)
(106)
Product Group Earnings
11,893
11,380
9,283
Other items
(504)
(504)
(493)
Exploration & Evaluation
(230)
(211)
(201)
Net Interest
(226)
(244)
(263)
Underlying Earnings
10,982
10,465
8,374
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
4.25
4.07
3.20
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
169
351
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
6.74
6.41
5.12
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
1,273
1,267
1,267
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
371
371
371
Net Debt
2,316
1,810
1,271
Net Cash generated from operating activities
14,707
15,246
13,397
Capital Expenditure
(6,026)
(6,808)
(6,659)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
0.09
0.09
0.09
Free cash flow
8,770
8,581
6,658
Pilbara C1 unit cost
15.19
15.23
15.22
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
73,460
69,242
78,110
Aluminium
4,075
16,374
20,235
Copper & Diamonds
10,865
13,670
16,472
Energy & Minerals
3,779
6,211
6,701
Other Operations
(4,748)
(6,580)
(5,513)
Total Rio Tinto Group
85,057
100,233
115,360
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
0.69
0.72
0.73
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
0.73
0.72
0.73
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
0.74
0.75
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
0.76
0.75
0.75
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
75.75
80.82
82.27
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
91.92
92.02
92.12
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
273.12
302.45
298.76
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
304.77
304.88
306.01
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
94.11
81.91
70.21
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
57.18
57.71
57.76
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
100.73
91.37
75.57
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
65.09
65.76
65.82

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.