Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 05/05/20

Contributors

  • 17 H1 FY20 based on
  • 19 FY20 based on
  • 19 FY21 based on
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
H1 FY20
CONSENSUS
05/05/20
FY20
CONSENSUS
05/05/20
FY21
CONSENSUS
05/05/20
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
3,964
7,877
8,056
Aluminium ('000 t)
1,551
3,151
3,250
Bauxite ('000 t)
28,020
56,127
58,240
Borates ('000 t)
255
510
515
Copper - mined ('000 t)
247
504
589
Copper - refined ('000 t)
89
191
245
Diamonds ('000 cts)
6,986
12,784
4,992
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
160,054
330,706
342,759
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
156,972
327,790
341,799
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
5,320
11,003
11,921
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
568
1,199
1,345
Uranium ('000 lbs)
1,412
2,603
1,327
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
140
298
397
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
81
171
200
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
10,627
20,793
18,586
Aluminium
4,647
9,445
10,318
Copper and Diamonds
2,157
4,529
5,606
Energy and Minerals
2,359
4,731
4,767
Other Operations
59
113
120
Intersegmental transactions
(7)
(15)
(15)
Product Group Revenue
19,832
39,579
39,364
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
7,153
13,737
11,311
Aluminium
842
1,808
2,388
Copper and Diamonds
542
1,262
2,254
Energy and Minerals
804
1,553
1,562
Other Operations
(33)
(54)
(55)
Intersegmental Transactions
1
1
1
Product Group EBITDA
9,314
18,315
17,469
Other Items
(346)
(695)
(689)
Exploration & evaluation
(133)
(275)
(264)
Underlying EBITDA
8,899
17,461
16,631
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
4,236
8,116
6,436
Aluminium
185
425
719
Copper and Diamonds
(21)
71
614
Energy and Minerals
305
597
630
Other Operations
(65)
(134)
(133)
Intersegmental transactions
(28)
(47)
(62)
Product Group Earnings
4,639
9,077
8,258
Other items
(217)
(443)
(466)
Exploration & Evaluation
(130)
(250)
(241)
Net Interest
(162)
(311)
(311)
Underlying Earnings
4,183
8,165
7,332
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
1.45
3.02
2.82
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
65
80
-
Underlying Earnings Per Share
2.55
4.93
4.44
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
1,299
1,291
1,291
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
371
372
372
Net Debt
4,594
4,151
3,677
Net Cash generated from operating activities
6,572
12,631
12,226
Capital Expenditure
(2,771)
(5,710)
(6,676)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
0.09
0.09
0.09
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
75,732
n/a
68,276
Aluminium
22,748
n/a
17,864
Copper & Diamonds
13,749
n/a
13,341
Energy & Minerals
6,212
n/a
5,534
Other Operations
(8,502)
-
(6,552)
Total Rio Tinto Group
118,884
n/a
99,655
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
0.64
0.64
0.68
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
0.72
0.72
0.72
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
0.72
0.72
0.75
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
0.78
0.78
0.78
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
74.66
74.58
80.25
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
94.22
93.99
93.56
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
237.13
240.21
268.50
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
303.90
304.38
301.84
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
78.98
74.64
62.36
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
57.37
55.76
56.29
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
83.76
80.76
70.39
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
64.53
62.68
63.32

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.