Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 24/07/20

Contributors

  • 16 H1 FY20 based on
  • 16 FY20 based on
  • 16 FY21 based on
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
H1 FY20
CONSENSUS
24/07/20
FY20
CONSENSUS
24/07/20
FY21
CONSENSUS
24/07/20
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
3,997
7,955
8,039
Aluminium ('000 t)
1,568
3,167
3,150
Bauxite ('000 t)
28,373
57,004
57,602
Borates ('000 t)
258
511
514
Copper - mined ('000 t)
264
509
569
Copper - refined ('000 t)
73
180
246
Diamonds ('000 cts)
7,577
12,970
4,197
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
161,059
331,294
342,011
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
159,376
329,696
340,721
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
5,293
10,695
11,941
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
555
1,165
1,301
Uranium ('000 lbs)
1,259
2,357
1,124
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
126
280
379
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
75
164
189
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
11,247
23,047
21,056
Aluminium
4,525
9,151
9,589
Copper and Diamonds
2,201
4,671
5,714
Energy and Minerals
2,367
4,785
4,857
Other Operations
2
3
3
Intersegmental transactions
(7)
(16)
(16)
Product Group Revenue
20,336
41,643
41,205
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
7,582
15,433
13,363
Aluminium
772
1,591
1,969
Copper and Diamonds
544
1,362
2,323
Energy and Minerals
807
1,621
1,674
Other Operations
(43)
(82)
(84)
Intersegmental Transactions
1
1
1
Product Group EBITDA
9,668
19,936
19,256
Other Items
(342)
(690)
(683)
Exploration & evaluation
(137)
(281)
(276)
Underlying EBITDA
9,236
19,062
18,392
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
4,601
9,322
7,839
Aluminium
75
171
441
Copper and Diamonds
(52)
53
646
Energy and Minerals
290
590
640
Other Operations
(74)
(140)
(145)
Intersegmental transactions
(31)
(56)
(75)
Product Group Earnings
4,840
10,000
9,414
Other items
(230)
(475)
(537)
Exploration & Evaluation
(126)
(243)
(233)
Net Interest
(155)
(313)
(311)
Underlying Earnings
4,360
9,030
8,391
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
1.55
3.54
3.24
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
111
111
82
Underlying Earnings Per Share
2.68
5.55
5.15
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
1,304
1,303
1,302
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
371
371
371
Net Debt
4,712
3,526
2,839
Net Cash generated from operating activities
6,029
13,184
13,368
Capital Expenditure
(2,800)
(5,945)
(6,820)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
0.09
0.09
0.09
Free cash flow
3,298
7,254
6,487
Pilbara C1 unit cost
15.13
14.91
14.57
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
73,394
n/a
73,658
Aluminium
21,245
n/a
17,770
Copper & Diamonds
13,207
n/a
13,924
Energy & Minerals
6,257
n/a
4,967
Other Operations
(5,448)
-
(5,461)
Total Rio Tinto Group
109,745
n/a
106,033
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
0.66
0.67
0.69
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
0.71
0.72
0.71
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
0.73
0.73
0.74
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
0.77
0.77
0.76
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
72.90
72.74
76.94
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
92.08
92.64
92.08
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
250.04
258.23
275.86
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
300.07
302.92
300.07
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
84.87
83.86
72.02
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
57.32
56.73
57.32
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
88.70
89.68
78.75
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
64.65
63.91
64.65

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.