Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 17/05/21

Contributors

  • 14 H1 FY21 based on
  • 16 FY21 based on
  • 16 FY22 based on
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
H1 FY21
CONSENSUS
17/05/21
FY21
CONSENSUS
17/05/21
FY22
CONSENSUS
17/05/21
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
4,032
8,059
8,085
Aluminium ('000 t)
1,614
3,222
3,245
Bauxite ('000 t)
28,076
57,175
58,154
Borates ('000 t)
248
499
506
Copper - mined ('000 t)
252
525
563
Copper - refined ('000 t)
114
224
236
Diamonds ('000 cts)
1,895
3,725
3,595
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
160,451
331,479
342,625
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
161,239
331,496
342,519
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
5,153
10,926
11,711
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
579
1,182
1,271
Uranium ('000 lbs)
206
359
333
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
197
402
327
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
101
191
183
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
19,733
36,288
28,097
Aluminium
5,610
11,292
11,286
Copper
3,603
7,208
6,582
Minerals
2,872
5,606
5,237
Other Operations
(2)
-0
2
Intersegmental transactions
(95)
(164)
(153)
Product Group Revenue
31,756
60,281
51,099
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
14,750
26,661
18,725
Aluminium
1,683
3,454
3,319
Copper
2,095
4,147
3,436
Minerals
1,302
2,450
1,985
Other Operations
(68)
(114)
(118)
Intersegmental Transactions
(2)
(12)
(12)
Product Group EBITDA
19,776
36,612
27,362
Other Items
(592)
(1,080)
(1,050)
Exploration & evaluation
(111)
(240)
(213)
Underlying EBITDA
19,132
35,390
26,191
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
9,478
16,883
11,388
Aluminium
734
1,527
1,434
Copper
947
1,816
1,411
Minerals
583
1,056
842
Other Operations
(22)
(58)
(65)
Intersegmental transactions
(92)
(152)
(69)
Product Group Earnings
11,675
21,148
14,987
Other items
(517)
(936)
(881)
Exploration & Evaluation
(156)
(297)
(277)
Net Interest
(117)
(234)
(215)
Underlying Earnings
10,907
19,717
13,649
Other Financial Information
Ordinary dividends per share US$
4.21
8.29
5.58
Total dividends per share US$
4.29
8.71
5.78
Additional Share buy-back announced US$m
-
-
924
Underlying Earnings Per Share
6.71
11.97
8.43
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
1,284
1,281
1,266
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
371
371
371
Net Debt
(864)
(1,630)
(654)
Net Cash generated from operating activities
13,149
24,528
18,747
Capital Expenditure
(3,482)
(7,236)
(6,918)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
0.09
0.08
0.08
Free cash flow
9,624
17,148
11,795
Pilbara C1 unit cost
17.49
17.32
16.60
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
n/a
79,312
78,962
Aluminium
n/a
17,191
19,639
Copper
n/a
15,639
16,401
Minerals
n/a
5,269
6,102
Other Operations
n/a
(5,367)
(5,513)
Total Rio Tinto Group
-
111,783
90,724
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
0.77
0.77
0.76
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
0.73
0.74
0.74
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
0.79
0.79
0.78
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
0.77
0.77
0.78
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
96.77
96.79
94.96
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
93.42
93.01
92.83
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
391.03
385.22
360.99
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
327.25
322.48
322.66
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
146.04
128.12
94.64
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
64.94
62.83
60.70
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
150.69
140.71
109.28
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
73.84
71.29
69.04

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.