Glencore plc

Public consensus   -   Last updated 31/07/20

Contributors 14

  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • BofA Securities
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • Renaissance BJM
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
H1 FY20
CONSENSUS
31/07/20
Financials ($M)
Marketing Adjusted EBITDA
14
1,361
Marketing Adjusted EBIT
Metals and minerals
14
736
Energy products
14
514
Agricultural products
11
8
Corporate and other
13
(43)
Total Marketing Adjusted EBIT
14
1,212
Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
Copper
14
1,281
Zinc
14
673
Nickel
14
241
Ferroalloys
14
45
Aluminium/Alumina
12
(2)
Iron ore
10
-0
Coal
14
868
Oil
14
41
Agri
8
-
Corporate and other
14
(221)
Total Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
14
2,925
Industrial Adjusted EBIT
14
(284)
Total Adjusted EBITDA
14
4,287
Total depreciation
14
3,353
Total Adjusted EBIT (pre JV)
14
934
JV adjustment
14
(148)
Total Adjusted EBIT - reported measure
14
786
Interest expense - net
14
(815)
Income tax expense
14
77
Non-controlling interest
14
157
Income before significant items
14
205
Shares
Shares (M)
14
13,328
Shares (diluted) (M)
13
13,445
EPS (Basic, pre other significant items) - $ cent
14
1.5
EPS (Diluted) - $ cent
13
1.6
Balance Sheet & Cashflow
Gross debt
12
36,591
Cash and cash equivalents
12
(2,867)
Net Funding
13
32,512
RMI
12
(15,645)
Net Debt (defined by Glencore)
13
18,070
Dividend (USc/share)
11
-
Expansion Capex
Total Expansion Capex
13
448
Sustaining Capex
Total Sustaining Capex
13
1,634
Marketing capex (incl. capitalised interest)
12
103
Total Group Capex
13
2,177
Industrial Production (own sources)
Total group production own sources
Total Copper (kt)
13
589.0
Total Zinc (kt)
13
566.3
Total Lead (kt)
13
137.8
Total Nickel (kt)
13
56.1
Total Gold (koz)
11
393
Total Silver (koz)
11
15,157
Total Cobalt (kt)
13
13.0
Total Ferrochrome (kt)
12
496
Total Platinum (koz)
10
24
Total Palladium (koz)
9
49
Total Rhodium (koz)
8
2
Total Vanadium Pentoxide (Mlb)
10
8.1
Coal production from own sources (Mt)
Australian Coking coal
13
4.1
Australian Semi-soft coal
13
3.3
Australian thermal coal (export)
13
30.2
Australian thermal coal (domestic)
13
3.8
South African thermal coal (export)
13
7.2
South African thermal coal (domestic)
13
5.0
Prodeco
13
4.7
Cerrejon
13
3.2
Total Coal department
13
61.5
Oil production Glencore entitlement (kbbl)
Equatorial Guinea
12
1,027
Chad
12
1,338
Commodity prices and exchange rates
Commodity Prices
Copper price ($/t)
13
5,494
Zinc price ($/t)
13
2,047
Lead price ($/t)
13
1,759
Nickel price ($/t)
13
12,501
Gold price ($/oz)
13
1,618
Silver price ($/oz)
13
17
Cobalt price ($/lb)
13
16
Ferrochrome (c/lb)
13
101
Platinum ($/oz)
13
847
Iron ore price ($/DMT)
10
93
AU - HCC Realised Export Price ($/t)
10
127
AU - SS Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
10
87
AU - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
10
62
AU - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
9
33
SA - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
10
60
SA - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
9
25
Prodeco - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
10
48
Cerrejon - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
47
Oil price ($/bbl)
13
41
Exchange rates
AUD:USD
12
0.71
USD:KZT
8
351.05
USD:ZAR
12
15.32
USD:CAD
11
2.64

Disclaimer

Glencore invites registered sell-side analysts that monitor Glencore’s shares to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Glencore.

The consensus figures are an aggregation of publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Glencore’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Glencore’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by Glencore. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Glencore where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Glencore website.

By enabling publication of the consensus figures and referencing the same on its website, Glencore does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Glencore or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Glencore assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Glencore does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Ahead of the release of each of Glencore’s Quarterly Production Reports, sell-side analysts who follow the Company are requested to submit their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent only the estimates of these analysts who contribute (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters). Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until these analysts submit their updated forecasts ahead of the release of Glencore’s next Quarterly Production Report. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA after the end of the prior reporting period has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures for that reporting period.