Glencore plc

Public consensus   -   Last updated 08/02/21

Contributors 12

  • Barclays
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs International
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • Liberum Capital
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • Renaissance BJM
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY20
CONSENSUS
08/02/21
Financials ($M)
Marketing Adjusted EBITDA
12
3,643
Marketing Adjusted EBIT
Metals and minerals
12
1,503
Energy products
12
1,837
Agricultural products
11
53
Corporate and other
11
(126)
Total Marketing Adjusted EBIT
12
3,274
Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
Copper
12
3,852
Zinc
12
1,937
Nickel
12
578
Ferroalloys
12
137
Aluminium/Alumina
12
(26)
Iron ore
12
(1)
Coal
12
1,223
Oil
12
(118)
Agri
8
-
Corporate and other
12
(534)
Total Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
12
7,048
Industrial Adjusted EBIT
12
856
Total Adjusted EBITDA
12
10,691
Total depreciation
12
5,493
Total Adjusted EBIT (pre JV)
12
4,129
JV adjustment
11
(228)
Total Adjusted EBIT - reported measure
12
3,628
Interest expense - net
12
(1,564)
Income tax expense
12
(145)
Non-controlling interest
12
647
Income before significant items
12
2,491
Shares
Shares (M)
12
13,299
Shares (diluted) (M)
12
13,373
EPS (Basic, pre other significant items) - $ cent
11
16.0
EPS (Diluted) - $ cent
11
16.0
Balance Sheet & Cashflow
Gross debt
12
37,830
Cash and cash equivalents
12
(2,510)
Net Funding
12
33,604
RMI
12
(11,294)
Net Debt (defined by Glencore)
12
16,277
Dividend (USc/share)
11
6.25
Expansion Capex
Total Expansion Capex
11
812
Sustaining Capex
Total Sustaining Capex
11
2,701
Marketing capex (incl. capitalised interest)
10
435
Total Group Capex
12
4,250
Industrial Production (own sources)
Total group production own sources
Total Copper (kt)
11
1,259.9
Total Zinc (kt)
11
1,171.4
Total Lead (kt)
11
270.7
Total Nickel (kt)
11
110.7
Total Gold (koz)
10
800
Total Silver (koz)
10
33,175
Total Cobalt (kt)
11
27.7
Total Ferrochrome (kt)
11
1,048
Total Platinum (koz)
10
37
Total Palladium (koz)
10
74
Total Rhodium (koz)
10
3
Total Vanadium Pentoxide (Mlb)
10
17.8
Coal production from own sources (Mt)
Australian Coking coal
11
7.9
Australian Semi-soft coal
11
5.1
Australian thermal coal (export)
11
56.9
Australian thermal coal (domestic)
11
6.2
South African thermal coal (export)
11
15.2
South African thermal coal (domestic)
11
9.1
Prodeco
11
3.5
Cerrejon
11
4.6
Total Coal department
11
108.4
Oil production Glencore entitlement (kbbl)
Equatorial Guinea
11
2,059
Chad
11
1,389
Commodity prices and exchange rates
Commodity Prices
Copper price ($/t)
11
6,174
Zinc price ($/t)
11
2,267
Lead price ($/t)
11
1,825
Nickel price ($/t)
11
13,787
Gold price ($/oz)
11
1,724
Silver price ($/oz)
11
20
Cobalt price ($/lb)
11
16
Ferrochrome (c/lb)
11
98
Platinum ($/oz)
9
883
Iron ore price ($/DMT)
8
112
AU - HCC Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
120
AU - SS Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
82
AU - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
62
AU - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
8
34
SA - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
55
SA - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
8
24
Prodeco - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
8
50
Cerrejon - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
8
51
Oil price ($/bbl)
11
43
Exchange rates
AUD:USD
11
0.83
USD:KZT
8
408.97
USD:ZAR
11
16.47
USD:CAD
10
1.28

Disclaimer

Glencore invites registered sell-side analysts that monitor Glencore’s shares to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Glencore.

The consensus figures are an aggregation of publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Glencore’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Glencore’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by Glencore. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Glencore where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Glencore website.

By enabling publication of the consensus figures and referencing the same on its website, Glencore does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Glencore or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Glencore assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Glencore does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Ahead of the release of each of Glencore’s Quarterly Production Reports, sell-side analysts who follow the Company are requested to submit their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent only the estimates of these analysts who contribute (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters). Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until these analysts submit their updated forecasts ahead of the release of Glencore’s next Quarterly Production Report. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA after the end of the prior reporting period has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures for that reporting period.