Glencore plc

Public consensus   -   Last updated 06/02/20

Contributors 18

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • HSBC
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Liberum Capital
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • Renaissance BJM
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • Societe Generale
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY19
CONSENSUS
06/02/20
FY19
MIN
FY19
MAX
Financials ($M)
Marketing Adjusted EBITDA
18
2,526
2,332
2,826
Marketing Adjusted EBIT
Metals and minerals
18
1,186
945
1,480
Energy products
18
1,165
977
1,279
Agricultural products
16
20
-
141
Corporate and other
17
(131)
(798)
(74)
Total Marketing Adjusted EBIT
18
2,245
1,507
2,621
Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
Copper
18
2,740
2,321
3,133
Zinc
18
1,914
1,660
2,262
Nickel
18
621
463
808
Ferroalloys
18
381
198
522
Aluminium/Alumina
18
(33)
(75)
-
Iron ore
16
(1)
(2)
2
Coal
18
3,376
2,860
3,762
Oil
18
170
134
246
Agri
12
-
-
-
Corporate and other
18
(449)
(1,088)
(212)
Total Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
18
8,720
8,187
9,288
Industrial Adjusted EBIT
18
2,184
1,530
3,113
Total Adjusted EBITDA
18
11,246
10,721
11,892
Total depreciation
18
6,816
6,445
7,056
Total Adjusted EBIT (pre JV)
18
4,429
3,987
5,381
JV adjustment
18
(342)
(575)
85
Total Adjusted EBIT - reported measure
18
4,088
3,595
5,055
Interest expense - net
18
(1,676)
(2,010)
(1,328)
Income tax expense
18
(697)
(1,174)
(200)
Non-controlling interest
18
511
(117)
1,431
Income before significant items
18
2,226
1,090
3,541
Shares
Shares (M)
18
13,484
12,976
13,772
Shares (diluted) (M)
17
13,680
12,976
14,586
EPS (Basic, pre other significant items) - $ cent
18
16.5
8.0
26.8
EPS (Diluted) - $ cent
17
16.0
8.0
26.6
Balance Sheet & Cashflow
Gross debt
18
35,728
33,994
37,172
Cash and cash equivalents
18
(1,834)
(4,219)
2,086
Net Funding
18
33,681
31,616
36,619
RMI
18
(16,559)
(18,414)
(14,729)
Net Debt (defined by Glencore)
18
17,122
14,362
20,559
Dividend (USc/share)
17
18.64
8.13
20.38
Expansion Capex
Total Expansion Capex
18
1,434
755
4,747
Sustaining Capex
Total Sustaining Capex
17
3,618
3,250
4,285
Marketing capex (incl. capitalised interest)
16
219
(383)
400
Total Group Capex
18
5,046
4,747
5,442
Industrial Production (own sources)
Total group production own sources
Total Copper (kt)
17
1,363.6
1,308.0
1,384.8
Total Zinc (kt)
17
1,113.3
1,077.5
1,250.4
Total Lead (kt)
17
308.9
280.0
418.0
Total Nickel (kt)
17
124.0
120.6
128.6
Total Gold (koz)
15
795
178
891
Total Silver (koz)
15
32,439
24,649
36,963
Total Cobalt (kt)
17
43.8
29.6
49.7
Total Ferrochrome (kt)
16
1,357
-
1,663
Total Platinum (koz)
13
59
-
123
Total Palladium (koz)
13
90
-
158
Total Rhodium (koz)
12
4
-
15
Total Vanadium Pentoxide (Mlb)
15
17.9
-
22.0
Coal production from own sources (Mt)
Australian Coking coal
17
8.5
7.8
10.0
Australian Semi-soft coal
17
6.7
6.0
7.3
Australian thermal coal (export)
17
64.7
62.0
71.3
Australian thermal coal (domestic)
17
8.1
1.7
9.0
South African thermal coal (export)
17
13.8
12.6
16.0
South African thermal coal (domestic)
17
14.3
12.0
15.0
Prodeco
17
15.1
13.7
15.8
Cerrejon
17
8.5
8.0
9.0
Total Coal department
17
139.7
134.9
141.2
Oil production Glencore entitlement (kbbl)
Equatorial Guinea
16
1,851
1,632
2,216
Chad
16
3,331
1,805
4,783
Commodity prices and exchange rates
Commodity Prices
Copper price ($/t)
17
6,014
5,925
6,219
Zinc price ($/t)
17
2,526
2,241
2,577
Lead price ($/t)
17
2,003
1,986
2,021
Nickel price ($/t)
17
13,996
13,893
14,540
Gold price ($/oz)
17
1,394
1,258
1,569
Silver price ($/oz)
17
16
16
18
Cobalt price ($/lb)
17
16
15
17
Ferrochrome (c/lb)
17
105
77
125
Platinum ($/oz)
16
875
860
975
Iron ore price ($/DMT)
12
94
87
115
AU - HCC Realised Export Price ($/t)
13
162
115
195
AU - SS Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
13
112
83
137
AU - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
13
77
63
90
AU - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
12
35
21
49
SA - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
13
67
57
76
SA - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
12
25
20
35
Prodeco - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
13
56
45
71
Cerrejon - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
12
59
55
62
Oil price ($/bbl)
16
64
57
68
Exchange rates
AUD:USD
17
0.78
0.68
1.44
USD:KZT
13
379.20
332.50
384.03
USD:ZAR
17
14.49
14.45
14.68
USD:CAD
15
1.23
0.75
1.33

Disclaimer

Glencore invites registered sell-side analysts that monitor Glencore’s shares to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Glencore.

The consensus figures are an aggregation of publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Glencore’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Glencore’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by Glencore. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Glencore where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Glencore website.

By enabling publication of the consensus figures and referencing the same on its website, Glencore does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Glencore or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Glencore assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Glencore does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Ahead of the release of each of Glencore’s Quarterly Production Reports, sell-side analysts who follow the Company are requested to submit their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent only the estimates of these analysts who contribute (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters). Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until these analysts submit their updated forecasts ahead of the release of Glencore’s next Quarterly Production Report. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA after the end of the prior reporting period has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures for that reporting period.