Imperial Brands plc

Public consensus   -   Last updated 30/10/18

Reporting currency: GBP
Reporting unit: Absolute
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY19
CONSENSUS
30/10/18
FY19
MIN
FY19
MAX
Reported
Stick Equivalent (bn) - By Reporting Segment
Returns Markets North
14
83
82
85
Returns Markets South
14
72
71
73
Total Returns Markets
14
155
153
158
Total Growth Markets
14
72
70
75
Total USA
14
21
21
22
Total Tobacco Volume
14
249
246
253
% growth
12
(3)
(5)
-0
Net Revenue (£m) - By Reporting Segment
Returns Markets North
14
2,717
2,664
2,790
Returns Markets South
14
1,553
1,486
1,603
Total Returns Markets
14
4,270
4,156
4,366
Total Growth Markets
14
1,828
1,643
2,179
Total USA
14
1,714
1,637
1,799
Total Tobacco Net Revenue
14
7,812
7,585
8,164
% growth
11
3
0
6
Logistics Distribution Fees
13
973
921
1,011
% growth
11
2
(1)
3
Adjusted Operating Profit (£m)
Returns Markets North
14
1,471
1,429
1,579
Returns Markets South
14
672
617
702
Total Returns Markets
14
2,143
2,046
2,226
Total Growth Markets
14
375
333
417
Total USA
14
1,084
1,002
1,162
Total Tobacco Adjusted Operating Profit
14
3,602
3,453
3,721
% growth
12
2
(2)
6
Tobacco Margin (%)
14
46.1
43.1
47.9
Logistics Adjusted Operating Profit
14
210
182
227
% growth.
12
2
(1)
5
Logistics Margin (%)
13
21.5
19.8
23.0
Eliminations
14
(4)
(16)
3
Total Group Adjusted Operating Profit
14
3,808
3,683
3,903
%. growth
12
2
(1)
6
Interest
14
(445)
(485)
(414)
Share of profit of joint ventures
14
39
35
47
Profit Before Tax
14
3,401
3,301
3,500
Tax
14
(666)
(691)
(644)
Tax Rate (%)
14
19.6
19.2
20.0
Minority Interests
14
(83)
(103)
(62)
Earnings
14
2,653
2,558
2,716
Basic weighted average shares in issue
14
950.4
942.5
958.0
Adjusted EPS (p)
14
279.1
269.2
286.0
EPS growth %
12
3
(1)
6
DPS (p)
14
202.5
187.8
207.0
DPS growth %
12
8
0
10
Dividend payout ratio %
14
73
67
77
Model Assumptions
USD/GBP (average)
11
1.319
1.297
1.373
Adjusted closing net debt (£bn)
13
11.0
10.2
12.0

Disclaimer

The consensus figures are an aggregation of publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Imperial Brands' internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.
The consensus figures are not based on Imperial Brands’ own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Imperial Brands. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Imperial Brands where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Imperial Brands website.
By enabling publication of the consensus figures and referencing the same on its website, Imperial Brands does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Imperial Brands or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Imperial Brands assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.
Imperial Brands does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).
The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.
Following the release of Imperial Brands’ quarterly results, each of the contributing analysts is asked to submit their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Imperial Brands invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Imperial Brands’ next financial results.