Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 24/01/20

Contributors 17

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Credit Suisse
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • HSBC
  • Investec
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Oddo-BHF
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • Societe Generale
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY19
CONSENSUS
24/01/20
FY19
MIN
FY19
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
17
7,740
7,691
7,759
Aluminium ('000 t)
17
3,174
3,169
3,206
Bauxite ('000 t)
17
54,968
53,875
55,106
Borates ('000 t)
16
519
500
529
Copper - mined ('000 t)
17
578
552
604
Copper - refined ('000 t)
16
258
244
260
Diamonds ('000 cts)
17
16,944
16,096
17,181
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
17
326,796
326,662
328,000
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
17
327,411
325,985
332,799
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
16
10,543
10,061
10,864
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
16
1,213
1,185
1,258
Uranium ('000 lbs)
17
4,795
4,137
5,581
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
15
390
386
398
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
13
218
205
219
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
23,717
23,206
24,324
Aluminium
17
10,068
9,323
10,842
Copper and Diamonds
17
5,751
5,484
5,998
Energy and Minerals
17
5,197
4,061
5,560
Other Operations
14
14
-
101
Intersegmental transactions
14
(14)
(80)
3
Product Group Revenue
17
44,734
43,462
45,532
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
16,013
15,532
16,826
Aluminium
17
2,096
1,608
2,566
Copper and Diamonds
17
2,158
1,878
2,715
Energy and Minerals
17
1,933
1,546
2,181
Other Operations
15
(159)
(570)
(70)
Intersegmental Transactions
10
1
-
10
Product Group EBITDA
17
22,061
20,986
22,710
Other Items
16
(781)
(1,269)
(478)
Exploration & evaluation
15
(341)
(624)
(169)
Underlying EBITDA
17
21,026
19,907
21,998
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
17
9,674
9,267
10,280
Aluminium
17
586
197
858
Copper and Diamonds
17
559
285
728
Energy and Minerals
17
709
505
820
Other Operations
14
(216)
(1,004)
(80)
Intersegmental transactions
9
(62)
(554)
-
Product Group Earnings
17
11,318
10,478
12,385
Other items
17
(442)
(920)
240
Exploration & Evaluation
14
(284)
(687)
(119)
Net Interest
17
(243)
(542)
250
Underlying Earnings
17
10,398
9,529
11,066
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
17
4.52
3.51
5.62
Share buy-back US$m
15
1,619
1,355
1,988
Underlying Earnings Per Share
17
6.29
5.51
6.81
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
14
1,281
1,235
1,638
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
13
371
358
382
Net Debt
17
4,890
2,949
7,763
Net Cash generated from operating activities
17
14,155
11,347
16,578
Capital Expenditure
17
(5,437)
(5,977)
(4,879)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
16
0.59
0.07
8.14
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
6
54,716
44,756
73,926
Aluminium
6
25,302
20,428
36,548
Copper & Diamonds
6
16,786
4,234
28,500
Energy & Minerals
6
9,589
5,338
15,115
Other Operations
6
(1,963)
(5,915)
-
Total Rio Tinto Group
6
101,691
65,979
121,817
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
17
0.70
0.69
0.70
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
12
0.73
0.68
0.80
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
17
0.75
0.75
0.76
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
12
0.79
0.71
0.86
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
17
82.98
81.24
95.68
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
92.11
83.19
100.76
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
17
274.02
271.48
296.46
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
12
313.74
259.00
380.65
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
15
86.95
80.15
101.14
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
11
53.97
43.21
66.50
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
15
92.73
90.09
93.82
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
11
61.71
50.00
75.01
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
17
82.37
74.56
101.39
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
12
73.91
57.00
89.43
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
16
180.46
161.25
205.56
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
12
141.24
110.00
158.98

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto. Each of the contributing analysts listed on the following page has submitted updated estimates based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed, as at the date of publication, to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. All of the analysts who had submitted updated estimates into VUMA based on Rio Tinto’s most recent Quarterly Operations Review and agreed to their updated forecasts being included in the revised consensus figures as at the date of publication have been included in the aggregate consensus figures.