Rio Tinto

Public consensus   -   Last updated 30/10/18

Contributors 19

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Clarksons Platou Securities
  • CLSA
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Exane BNP Paribas
  • Goldman Sachs Australia
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • Societe Generale
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY19
CONSENSUS
30/10/18
FY19
MIN
FY19
MAX
Principal Commodities (RIO share of production)
Alumina ('000 t)
19
8,165.03
7,940.00
8,828.60
Aluminium ('000 t)
19
3,351.51
3,050.32
3,635.36
Bauxite ('000 t)
19
51,951.47
37,863.14
60,778.92
Borates ('000 t)
18
512.03
480.00
540.00
Coal - hard coking ('000 t)
17
-
-
-
Coal - semi-soft coking ('000 t)
14
-
-
-
Coal - thermal ('000 t)
17
-
-
-
Copper - mined ('000 t)
19
602.96
545.23
666.17
Copper - refined ('000 t)
18
254.91
214.79
321.89
Diamonds ('000 cts)
19
18,107.02
15,849.39
21,100.00
Pilbara - production ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
348,787.51
340,000.00
355,525.00
Pilbara - shipments ('000 t) (100% basis)
19
347,848.90
340,000.00
355,038.00
IOC iron ore pellets and concentrate ('000t) (Rio Tinto share)
18
11,988.98
9,579.00
15,262.00
Titanium dioxide feedstock ('000 t)
18
1,333.93
1,150.00
1,580.00
Uranium ('000 lbs)
18
6,154.51
2,744.00
8,046.76
Other Metals & Minerals
Gold - mined ('000 ozs)
16
353.33
303.59
474.51
Gold - refined ('000 ozs)
12
191.09
115.94
360.69
Gross Sales Revenue (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
17,399.73
15,128.03
20,174.96
Aluminium
19
11,866.27
8,882.11
13,939.77
Copper and Diamonds
19
6,323.07
5,249.25
7,173.61
Energy and Minerals
19
5,054.48
2,884.49
6,280.28
Other Operations
16
6.29
-
24.00
Intersegmental transactions
17
(10.41)
(80.00)
-
Product Group Revenue
19
40,639.52
34,353.10
42,680.36
EBITDA (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
10,158.86
7,703.75
11,900.55
Aluminium
19
3,533.52
2,371.48
4,843.14
Copper and Diamonds
19
2,614.57
1,614.26
3,499.71
Energy and Minerals
19
1,592.00
752.64
2,071.32
Other Operations
18
(71.17)
(430.00)
-
Intersegmental Transactions
13
0.85
-
10.00
Product Group EBITDA
19
17,832.11
13,351.04
19,894.22
Other Items
18
(722.84)
(1,077.00)
(261.03)
Exploration & evaluation
16
(228.34)
(500.00)
(160.00)
Underlying EBITDA
19
16,955.03
12,591.04
19,461.73
Underlying Earnings (US$m)
Iron Ore
19
5,659.99
3,922.80
6,583.00
Aluminium
19
1,679.62
846.36
2,598.85
Copper and Diamonds
19
702.55
(30.25)
1,151.08
Energy and Minerals
19
568.85
245.19
892.41
Other Operations
17
(80.89)
(313.60)
-
Intersegmental transactions
11
(52.43)
(576.78)
-
Product Group Earnings
19
8,508.27
5,594.05
9,577.71
Other items
19
(516.15)
(1,052.71)
217.27
Exploration & Evaluation
15
(212.80)
(600.00)
(100.00)
Net Interest
19
(323.10)
(759.92)
-
Underlying Earnings
19
7,501.03
4,713.75
8,726.58
Other Financial Information
Dividends per share US$
19
2.63
1.45
3.23
Share buy-back US$m
16
1,963.48
-
6,100.00
Underlying Earnings Per Share
19
4.49
2.90
5.37
Number of Shares in issue - RT Plc (millions) - average during period
16
1,265.43
1,158.53
1,640.39
Number of Shares in issue - RT Ltd (millions) - average during period
15
389.13
346.98
422.30
Net Debt
19
4,012.48
(158.52)
7,615.69
Net Cash generated from operating activities
18
12,294.79
8,809.51
14,188.83
Capital Expenditure
19
(5,818.32)
(6,204.08)
(4,937.21)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
15
0.09
0.07
0.11
Net Present Value of Assets (US$m)
Iron Ore
6
54,716.23
44,756.24
73,925.86
Aluminium
6
25,301.68
20,427.64
36,548.28
Copper & Diamonds
6
16,786.00
4,233.70
28,499.58
Energy & Minerals
6
9,589.19
5,338.47
15,114.63
Other Operations
6
(1,963.27)
(5,915.19)
-
Total Rio Tinto Group
6
101,691.37
65,978.68
121,817.21
Key Assumptions (US$/tonne unless specified)
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD)
18
0.73
0.70
0.76
Australia/USA exchange rate (1 AUD / USD) - Long term
11
0.75
0.71
0.81
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD)
18
0.79
0.73
1.20
Canadian/USA exchange rate (1CAD / USD) - Long Term
11
0.80
0.70
0.87
Aluminium (US cents per pound)
19
98.07
88.75
114.00
Aluminium (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
11
90.91
82.00
105.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Current Year
19
300.94
275.00
347.00
Copper (US cents per pound) - Long term (real)
11
301.74
263.09
325.15
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) - Current Year
17
58.00
50.13
89.94
Iron Ore Fines (FOB ex AUS to Asia) -Long term (real)
9
53.82
40.00
82.75
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Current Year
16
62.76
56.00
67.63
Iron Ore Fines (CFR) - Long term (real)
9
56.09
48.67
64.59
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
19
95.25
80.00
109.50
Thermal Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
11
70.64
58.00
84.86
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Current Year
19
172.88
142.50
204.94
Prime Hard Coking Coal (FOB ex AUS) - Long term (real)
11
137.79
123.15
158.40

Disclaimer

As a courtesy to its shareholders and other stakeholders, Rio Tinto invites registered sell-side analysts from the United Kingdom, Australia and North America that monitor Rio Tinto’s stock, to submit their forecasts to the Vuma Consensus service, an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Services Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Rio Tinto.

The consensus figures are a collation of aggregated, publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Rio Tinto’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Rio Tinto’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by, Rio Tinto. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Rio Tinto where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Rio Tinto website (www.riotinto.com).

By providing access to the consensus figures on VUMA’s website, Rio Tinto does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Rio Tinto or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Rio Tinto assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Rio Tinto does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Following the release of Rio Tinto’s Quarterly Operations Review, which happens four times per year, each of the contributing analysts listed has submitted their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent the estimates of these analysts only (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters) at the time of publication. Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until Rio Tinto invites sell-side analysts to submit their updated forecasts following the release of Rio Tinto’s next Quarterly Operations Review. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures.