Glencore plc

Public consensus   -   Last updated 05/08/19

Contributors 12

  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Macquarie
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • Societe Generale
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
H1 FY19
CONSENSUS
05/08/19
H1 FY19
MIN
H1 FY19
MAX
Financials ($M)
Marketing Adjusted EBITDA
12
1,098
960
1,352
Marketing Adjusted EBIT
Metals and minerals
12
647
383
894
Energy products
12
425
313
584
Agricultural products
10
27
-
95
Corporate and other
11
(70)
(104)
(48)
Total Marketing Adjusted EBIT
12
1,031
918
1,314
Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
Copper
12
1,577
1,356
1,714
Zinc
12
919
780
1,018
Nickel
12
251
199
326
Ferroalloys
12
247
148
329
Aluminium/Alumina
11
(6)
(43)
-
Iron ore
10
-
-
-
Coal
12
1,997
1,750
2,346
Oil
12
70
44
108
Agri
8
10
-
82
Corporate and other
12
(224)
(398)
(150)
Total Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
12
4,839
4,467
5,374
Industrial Adjusted EBIT
12
1,579
890
2,474
Total Adjusted EBITDA
12
5,937
5,441
6,588
Total depreciation
12
3,327
2,931
3,857
Total Adjusted EBIT (pre JV)
12
2,610
1,841
3,657
JV adjustment
12
(246)
(555)
(154)
Total Adjusted EBIT - reported measure
12
2,363
1,600
3,102
Interest expense - net
12
(784)
(1,053)
(599)
Income tax expense
12
(388)
(695)
(27)
Non-controlling interest
12
170
(100)
763
Income before significant items
12
1,362
1,028
2,017
Shares
Shares (M)
12
13,628
13,240
13,982
Shares (diluted) (M)
11
13,812
13,240
14,254
EPS (Basic, pre other significant items) - $ cent
12
10.0
7.4
15.0
EPS (Diluted) - $ cent
11
10.1
7.4
15.0
Balance Sheet & Cashflow
Gross debt
11
34,364
33,340
35,504
Cash and cash equivalents
11
(1,209)
(3,521)
2,662
Net Funding
11
32,523
30,635
33,592
RMI
11
(17,235)
(18,099)
(15,509)
Net Debt (defined by Glencore)
11
15,288
13,559
17,012
Dividend (USc/share)
11
7.31
-
16.66
Expansion Capex
Total Expansion Capex
11
675
491
892
Sustaining Capex
Total Sustaining Capex
11
1,794
1,383
3,717
Marketing capex (incl. capitalised interest)
9
62
-
133
Total Group Capex
11
2,520
1,875
4,599
Industrial Production (own sources)
Total group production own sources
Total Copper (kt)
11
728.6
657.9
1,367.5
Total Zinc (kt)
11
603.4
476.9
1,295.4
Total Lead (kt)
11
174.3
147.5
425.5
Total Nickel (kt)
11
62.9
55.1
135.6
Total Gold (koz)
9
406
169
549
Total Silver (koz)
9
17,943
15,211
36,591
Total Cobalt (kt)
11
25.5
21.3
56.5
Total Ferrochrome (kt)
10
918
799
1,955
Total Platinum (koz)
10
32
-
61
Total Palladium (koz)
10
45
-
75
Total Rhodium (koz)
10
3
-
7
Total Vanadium Pentoxide (Mlb)
9
10.2
-
20.4
Coal production from own sources (Mt)
Australian Coking coal
11
4.8
4.3
8.9
Australian Semi-soft coal
11
3.2
2.0
4.5
Australian thermal coal (export)
11
33.8
28.0
64.1
Australian thermal coal (domestic)
11
4.2
1.7
8.9
South African thermal coal (export)
11
7.9
6.7
18.3
South African thermal coal (domestic)
11
8.0
6.6
15.3
Prodeco
11
8.0
6.6
15.1
Cerrejon
11
4.7
4.2
8.7
Total Coal department
11
74.6
65.2
143.8
Oil production Glencore entitlement (kbbl)
Equatorial Guinea
10
986
859
1,870
Chad
10
1,604
1,368
3,350
Commodity prices and exchange rates
Commodity Prices
Copper price ($/t)
11
6,175
6,139
6,269
Zinc price ($/t)
11
2,718
2,664
2,783
Lead price ($/t)
11
1,958
1,922
1,971
Nickel price ($/t)
11
12,356
12,245
12,630
Gold price ($/oz)
11
1,307
1,300
1,320
Silver price ($/oz)
11
15
15
15
Cobalt price ($/lb)
11
16
15
18
Ferrochrome (c/lb)
11
105
81
118
Platinum ($/oz)
11
835
832
844
Iron ore price ($/DMT)
10
91
85
115
AU - HCC Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
179
161
206
AU - SS Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
8
130
114
148
AU - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
82
59
94
AU - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
8
41
33
59
SA - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
9
72
59
87
SA - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
8
25
21
30
Prodeco - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
8
73
46
90
Cerrejon - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
7
70
56
82
Oil price ($/bbl)
10
65
57
71
Exchange rates
AUD:USD
10
0.71
0.71
0.71
USD:KZT
4
379.45
379.44
379.51
USD:ZAR
10
12.74
0.07
14.21
USD:CAD
7
1.15
0.75
1.33

Disclaimer

Glencore invites registered sell-side analysts that monitor Glencore’s shares to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Glencore.

The consensus figures are an aggregation of publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Glencore’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Glencore’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by Glencore. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Glencore where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Glencore website.

By enabling publication of the consensus figures and referencing the same on its website, Glencore does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Glencore or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Glencore assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Glencore does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Ahead of the release of each of Glencore’s Quarterly Production Reports, sell-side analysts who follow the Company are requested to submit their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent only the estimates of these analysts who contribute (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters). Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until these analysts submit their updated forecasts ahead of the release of Glencore’s next Quarterly Production Report. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA after the end of the prior reporting period has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures for that reporting period.