Glencore plc

Public consensus   -   Last updated 12/02/19

Contributors 20

  • Avior Capital Markets
  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Barclays
  • BMO Capital Markets
  • Citi
  • Clarksons Platou Securities
  • Credit Suisse
  • Deutsche Bank
  • HSBC
  • Investec
  • Jefferies International Limited
  • JP Morgan Cazenove
  • Liberum Capital
  • Macquarie
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBC Capital Markets
  • Renaissance BJM
  • SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd
  • Societe Generale
  • UBS
Reporting currency: USD
Reporting unit: Millions
 
NO. OF
FORECASTS
FY18
CONSENSUS
12/02/19
FY18
MIN
FY18
MAX
Financials ($M)
Marketing Adjusted EBITDA
20
2,807
2,586
3,081
Marketing Adjusted EBIT
Metals and minerals
20
2,056
1,798
2,206
Energy products
20
733
605
944
Agricultural products
17
71
(1)
147
Corporate and other
19
(176)
(209)
-
Total Marketing Adjusted EBIT
20
2,682
2,557
2,890
Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
Copper
20
4,867
4,503
5,210
Zinc
20
2,280
1,890
2,453
Nickel
20
868
675
1,228
Ferroalloys
19
632
416
768
Aluminium/Alumina
19
3
-
4
Iron ore
18
1
-
4
Coal
20
5,035
4,620
5,409
Oil
20
142
36
179
Agri
15
-
-
-
Corporate and other
20
(463)
(745)
(14)
Total Industrial Adjusted EBITDA
20
13,333
13,055
14,040
Industrial Adjusted EBIT
20
7,203
6,750
8,687
Total Adjusted EBITDA
20
16,140
15,934
16,727
Total depreciation
20
6,254
4,717
6,576
Total Adjusted EBIT (pre JV)
20
9,886
9,469
11,435
JV adjustment
19
(427)
(703)
163
Total Adjusted EBIT - reported measure
20
9,480
8,869
11,435
Interest expense - net
20
(1,488)
(1,772)
(1,312)
Income tax expense
20
(1,993)
(2,584)
(1,622)
Non-controlling interest
20
87
(1,013)
500
Income before significant items
20
6,087
5,034
6,919
Shares
Shares (M)
20
14,105
13,827
14,586
Shares (diluted) (M)
18
14,177
13,828
14,423
EPS (Basic, pre other significant items) - $ cent
20
43.2
35.3
49.9
EPS (Diluted) - $ cent
18
43.0
34.9
49.9
Balance Sheet & Cashflow
Gross debt
19
33,965
31,964
36,241
Cash and cash equivalents
19
(730)
(3,411)
865
Net Funding
20
33,517
29,610
38,265
RMI
20
(19,995)
(23,476)
(17,997)
Net Debt (defined by Glencore)
20
13,521
8,668
16,078
Dividend (USc/share)
19
19.31
0.25
30.00
Expansion Capex
Total Expansion Capex
17
1,503
915
4,197
Sustaining Capex
Total Sustaining Capex
16
3,406
3,019
4,141
Marketing capex (incl. capitalised interest)
15
363
14
3,400
Total Group Capex
18
4,749
3,400
5,275
Industrial Production (own sources)
Total group production own sources
Total Copper (kt)
19
1,459.1
1,442.8
1,557.9
Total Zinc (kt)
19
1,064.4
968.7
1,097.5
Total Lead (kt)
18
279.3
266.0
362.0
Total Nickel (kt)
19
124.6
123.2
132.0
Total Gold (koz)
14
946
222
1,048
Total Silver (koz)
14
35,039
33,640
36,202
Total Cobalt (kt)
17
42.0
34.5
54.8
Total Ferrochrome (kt)
16
1,597
1,565
1,840
Total Platinum (koz)
16
81
-
124
Total Palladium (koz)
16
104
-
162
Total Rhodium (koz)
16
10
-
16
Total Vanadium Pentoxide (Mlb)
14
18.4
-
20.8
Coal production from own sources (Mt)
Australian Coking coal
17
7.7
7.4
11.0
Australian Semi-soft coal
17
3.9
3.5
4.6
Australian thermal coal (export)
17
60.4
59.4
67.1
Australian thermal coal (domestic)
17
8.9
1.7
9.6
South African thermal coal (export)
17
17.5
17.3
18.6
South African thermal coal (domestic)
17
10.1
9.5
11.4
Prodeco
17
12.1
11.7
16.0
Cerrejon
17
10.3
10.2
12.0
Total Coal department
17
130.8
129.4
149.1
Oil production Glencore entitlement (kbbl)
Equatorial Guinea
16
1,873
1,663
2,447
Chad
16
2,865
2,547
3,403
Commodity prices and exchange rates
Commodity Prices
Copper price ($/t)
19
6,126
3
6,559
Zinc price ($/t)
19
2,740
1
2,933
Lead price ($/t)
18
2,101
1
2,252
Nickel price ($/t)
19
12,336
6
13,292
Gold price ($/oz)
18
1,271
1,267
1,288
Silver price ($/oz)
18
16
16
16
Cobalt price ($/lb)
17
33
21
38
Ferrochrome (c/lb)
18
119
90
139
Platinum ($/oz)
17
875
763
889
Iron ore price ($/DMT)
15
70
63
98
AU - HCC Realised Export Price ($/t)
15
172
122
207
AU - SS Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
13
133
88
159
AU - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
15
99
83
116
AU - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
13
40
22
60
SA - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
14
94
70
107
SA - Th Coal Realised Domestic Price ($/t)
13
26
16
38
Prodeco - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
13
94
77
102
Cerrejon - Th Coal Realised Export Price ($/t)
12
87
80
96
Oil price ($/bbl)
19
71
63
76
Exchange rates
AUD:USD
18
0.75
0.73
0.75
USD:KZT
10
340.51
295.00
354.02
USD:ZAR
18
12.53
0.08
13.69
USD:CAD
12
1.20
0.77
1.31

Disclaimer

Glencore invites registered sell-side analysts that monitor Glencore’s shares to submit their forecasts to an external web-based tool independently managed by Vuma Financial Limited (VUMA), a company independent of Glencore.

The consensus figures are an aggregation of publicly available forecasts collated exclusively by VUMA, but only on the basis of information submitted by those analysts who choose to participate. The consensus figure for a particular item represents the arithmetic average of all figures for that item submitted to VUMA by analysts. VUMA has no access to Glencore’s internal forecasts, budgets or any other information which is not publicly available.

The consensus figures are not based on Glencore’s own opinions, estimates or forecasts and are compiled and published without comment from, or endorsement or verification by Glencore. The consensus figures do not necessarily reflect guidance provided from time to time by Glencore where given in relation to equivalent metrics, which to the extent available can be found on the Glencore website.

By enabling publication of the consensus figures and referencing the same on its website, Glencore does not imply that it endorses, confirms or expresses a view on the consensus figures. The consensus figures are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to, nor do they, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. No warranty or representation, either express or implied, is made by Glencore or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers and employees, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or achievability of the consensus figures and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of those persons in respect of those matters. Glencore assumes no obligation to update, revise or supplement the consensus figures to reflect circumstances existing after the date hereof.

Glencore does not accept any liability whatsoever for reliance upon, or actions taken based on, any of the information set out in these consensus figures. The consensus figures are forward-looking and as such are speculative and rely on assumptions and events in the future (some or all of which may not be satisfied or may not occur).

The consensus figures do not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Before making an investment decision, a prospective investor should consider its particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances, and should seek appropriate professional advice, tailored to the investor's circumstances. Any investment in securities is subject to investment risks.

Ahead of the release of each of Glencore’s Quarterly Production Reports, sell-side analysts who follow the Company are requested to submit their estimates to VUMA. The consensus figures therefore represent only the estimates of these analysts who contribute (not necessarily being the same analysts that contributed to consensus figures for previous quarters). Analyst estimates can change significantly from time to time, as commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, among other things, can change rapidly. Any such changes in analysts’ estimates will not be reflected in the consensus figures published on VUMA’s website until these analysts submit their updated forecasts ahead of the release of Glencore’s next Quarterly Production Report. No analyst who has entered its estimates into VUMA after the end of the prior reporting period has been excluded from the aggregate consensus figures for that reporting period.